Be sure to listen to the Fitz on Fantasy podcast and for more personalized advice, be sure to check out Pat’s Patreon page where you can have direct access to Pat for your specific fantasy dilemmas.

2020 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyProsECR – Expert Consensus Rankings

The post Fitz on Fantasy: 2020 Week 4 Complete Player Rankings appeared first on The Football Girl.

Quarterback Rankings, 1-10

Quarterback Rankings, 11-40

Running Back Rankings, 1-10

Running Back Rankings, 11-30

Running Back Rankings, 31-70

Wide Receiver Rankings, 1-10

Wide Receiver Rankings, 11-30

Wide Receiver Rankings, 31-70

For more personalized advice, be sure to check out Pat’s Patreon page where you can have direct access to Pat for your specific fantasy dilemmas.

1. Travis Kelce, Chiefs

“Zeus” has run his streak of 1,000-yard seasons to four, and he’s topped 1,200 yards in each of the last two years. Among the reasons to love Kelce …

Usage: Last year he finished eighth in the league in receptions (97) and 11th in targets (136). In 2018, he ranked 10th in receptions (103) and eighth in targets (150).

Quarterback: Patrick Mahomes is the best passer in the game, and Kelce’s 2019 numbers could have been even better if Mahomes hadn’t missed 2.5 games with a knee injury.

Durability: Kelce has missed just one game in the last six years, and that was because the Chiefs elected to rest him in their meaningless regular-season finale in 2017.

Also, Kelce is probably due for a TD bounce after combining for 18 touchdowns in 2017-2018 and scoring just five times last year (though he did have four TD catches in three playoff games).

The question is: What’s the buying zone for Kelce in drafts? I rank him 16th overall, behind the top 12 running backs and WRs Michael Thomas, Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill. It’s hard to pass up opportunities to get an RB1 when you can, and Thomas and Adams are such voracious target hogs that I can’t justify putting Kelce ahead of them. Hill vs. Kelce is basically a toss-up.

The top two TEs offer such an enormous positional advantage that some people might even go fishing for one at the end of the first round. That’s a bit rich for me, but you could probably justify taking either Kelce or Kittle at the top of the second.

2. George Kittle, 49ers

It’s impossible not to love this guy. Off the field he’s goofy, fun-loving, engaging, effervescent. On the field he has the disposition of Genghis Khan, raiding and pillaging with reckless abandon. George Kittle is a national treasure.

I’ve probably spent more hours trying to parse the differences between Kittle and Travis Kelce than Sir Isaac Newton spent on the laws of motion. (Such is the excitement of day-to-day life during a pandemic.)

I see it as close to a push.

Kelce plays in a more potent passing attack; Kittle has less target competition. Over the last two years, Kittle has averaged 8.1 targets, 5.8 catches, 81.0 yards and 0.33 TDs per game. Kelce has averaged 8.9 targets, 6.3 catches, 80.1 yards and 0.47 TDs. Kittle has been more efficient with yards per catch and yards per target despite Kelce’s QB advantage.

I give Kelce the slightest edge, mostly based on his longer track record, but I also wonder if Kittle will run routes on a significantly lower percentage of snaps due to the 49ers’ run-heaviness and  Kittle’s exceptional blocking ability. Still, I would happily take Kittle in the mid-second round of a 12-team draft if the top dozen RBs are off the board.

3. Zach Ertz, Eagles

The brilliant Shawn Siegele of RotoViz seems to end up with Ertz on most of his teams, and if Shawn loves Ertz, you probably should too.

Ertz has racked up at least 74 receptions and 816 yards in each of the last five seasons. He’s taken it up a notch over the last two years, with 116-1,163-8 in 2018 and 88-916-6 in 2019. After averaging 109.3 targets from 2015 to 2017, Ertz has averaged 145.5 targets over the last two years.

The concerns that some people have with Ertz are that (1) the Eagles’ Dallas Goedert is the probably the best No. 2 tight end in the league, and (2) Philly’s cupboard was bare at the WR position last year, but they drafted three, including first-rounder Jalen Reagor, and are getting DeSean Jackson back from injury.

Still, wide receiver isn’t exactly a strength for the Eagles, and as talented as Goedert is, Ertz still played 86% of the Eagles offensive snaps last year.

Ertz’s target total is probably due to fall back to 2015-2017 levels, but even with 109 targets, Ertz would almost surely be a top-five TE.

4. Mark Andrews, Ravens

Just as it tough to choose between Travis Kelce and George Kittle for the TE1 spot, it was tough to choose between Andrews and Zach Ertz for TE3.

Andrews is a fascinating player. He had 64 catches for 852 yards and 10 TDs last year despite playing just 44% of the Ravens’ regular-season snaps. That’s crazy. But it shows that whenever Andrews was on the field, Ravens QB Lamar Jackson was looking to feed him.

That snap share should rise now that former first-round draft pick Hayden Hurst has left for Atlanta. The Ravens added a couple of wide receivers in the draft but probably didn’t make themselves appreciably better at the position.

One concern – and this was ultimately why I ranked Ertz a spot higher – is that Andrews has Type 1 diabetes. People with diabetes have a greater chance of experiencing serious complications from COVID-19, according to the American Diabetes Association, but Andrews has said he didn’t consider opting out of the 2020 season. Still, it’s fair to wonder whether Andrews might reconsider if there are outbreaks in NFL locker rooms during the season.

OK, I don’t want to end on a sour note, so let me bring up a point that I made when writing about Lamar Jackson earlier in this series. The Ravens went 14-2 in the regular season and outscored their opponents by an average of 15.6 points per game. That was one of the reasons they attempted a league-low 440 passes. If things don’t go as smoothly this year for Baltimore in the 2020 season, that passing volume is going to rise, and Andrews’ could really cash in.

5. Darren Waller, Raiders

Waller was a usage monster for the Raiders last year. With 90 catches for 1,145 yards, he was able to finish TE3 despite scoring only three TDs.

I’m avoiding Waller nonetheless. His target totals started to ebb over the second half of last season as WR Hunter Renfrow became more involved in the offense. Then the Raiders spent early draft picks on WRs Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards. They also annoyingly signed the primordial Jason Witten, who could put at least a minor dent in Waller’s snap totals.

Waller is terrific, but he’s a trap play in fantasy this year.

6. Evan Engram, Giants

Engram’s yardage totals have declined year over year since he entered the league in 2017, but his yardage per game has actually increased every year, reaching 58.4 ypg in 2019. That’s because he keeps getting hurt.

During his three-year career, Engram has had two concussions; a sprained ankle, two knee sprains, a strained hamstring, and last year a mid-foot sprain that required Lisfranc surgery. 

That inked-up medical chart makes Engram a classic risk/reward proposition. The appeal is that he’s basically a wide receiver playing tight end, bringing 4.4 speed and freaky athleticism to the position. Also, the Giants may need to be pass-heavy this year since their defense is probably going to be a sieve.

Engram just needs to stay healthy, but what are the odds?

7. Tyler Higbee, Rams

I’m so conflicted.

Through the first 10 games of 2019, Higbee had played less than half of the Rams’ offensive snaps and had 21 catches for 192 yards and one TD. Then fellow TE Gerald Everett hyperextended his knee, and Higbee went berserk, cramming a season’s worth of numbers into the last five games, with 43 catches for 522 yards and two TDs. 

So is the genie out of the bottle and ready to keep granting fantasy wishes in 2020, or was Higbee’s December rampage a small-sample fluke?

The optimist’s view is that Higbee was SO good down the stretch last year that it couldn’t have been a mirage. Those were freaky numbers – the best five-game run by a TE in NFL history. The Rams broke out of a horrible midseason offensive slump by using more two-TE sets, so it stands to reason they’ll use the 12 formation often in 2020. And it’s not like Higbee completely came out of the ether. He was only targeted 34 times in 2018, but he generated a fantastic 116.3 passer rating on those targets.

The pessimist’s view is that Higbee was the No. 2 tight end until Everett got hurt, and now Everett is back. A lot of Higbee’s catches last December were manufactured and sort of gimmicky. Instead of splitting seams like Travis Kelce, Higbee was doing a lot of his damage on bubble screens. Two of his last five games were against the Cardinals, who were lousy at defending TEs, and two were against the Cowboys and Seahawks, whose TE defense was also subpar.

Early in the offseason when the best-ball rooms opened up, I liked the price on Higbee and eagerly scooped up shares. But lately I’ve had cold feet, and I’m not sure I’ll end up with him in any of my home leagues.

8. Hunter Henry, Chargers

A career average of 8.9 yards per target speaks to Henry’s talent level. Unfortunately, ever since scoring eight touchdowns as a rookie in 2016, Henry has been waylaid by injury after injury – a lacerated kidney in 2017, a torn ACL in 2018, a tibia plateau fracture in 2019. Even though the latter cost him four games last year, he still had 55-652-5.

The Chargers’ passing volume is going to come down this year, and the passes are going to be thrown by either Tyrod Taylor or Justin Herbert instead of Philip Rivers. Henry’s talent might not be able to overcome an unfavorable ecosystem.

9. Hayden Hurst, Falcons

Overshadowed by Mark Andrews in Baltimore, Hurst will now get to spread his wings in Atlanta. (Actually, Falcons have smaller wingspans than Ravens, but never mind.)

It’s not clear whether Hurst is actually good, but his new role should be meaty. Austin Hooper finished TE6 in half-point PPR scoring in each of the last two years, averaging 92.5 targets a season with the Falcons over that stretch. With that sort of a target share and decent efficiency, Hurst should finish in the TE1 range.

Hurst’s ADP is TE13, according to FantasyPros, and he looks like a solid buy.

10. Rob Gronkowski, Buccaneers

Gronk is 31 and his body has been through the wringer, so to expect him to step out of retirement and return to the Gronk-Smash days of yore seems a bit far-fetched. Then again, he’s been reunited with Tom Brady, and maybe the Florida sun will warm their old bones.

I suspect the Buccaneers will limit Gronkowski’s snap share and use O.J. Howard quite a bit. But Gronk still figures to on the field when the Buccaneers are close to the goal line, since he and Brady obviously have red-zone chemistry. 

There’s not a chance in hell Gronkowski is putting up 1,000 yards, even if he somehow plays 16 games. But with reasonably good health he could probably get to 600 yards, and it’s not hard to imagine him scoring 7-8 touchdowns.

11. T.J. Hockenson, Lions

The elite TE prospect from Iowa exploded* out of the gate with six catches for 131 yards in Week 1 (*disclaimer: it happened against the Cardinals), and it seemed like his NFL career was off and running. But from Week 2 on, Hockenson had 26-236-1, averaging a woeful 4.7 yards per target.

There are reasonable excuses. Hockenson sustained a concussion, a shoulder sprain and an ankle sprain (the last of which cost him four games). QB Matthew Stafford got hurt Early in the season there were a few just-missed connections between Staff and Hock that probably turn into completions in Year 2.

Rookie TEs almost never click anyway, and Hockenson is now cheaper than he was last year. Stafford is healthy again, and the Lions will probably have to throw a lot since their defense looks lousy on paper. 

I’ve been an avid Hockenson buyer this year.

12. Mike Gesicki, Dolphins

Gesicki is big, fast and freakishly athletic. Last year he led all TEs in routes run out of the slot by a wide margin. He thrived in his “big slot” role after WR Preston Williams tore his ACL, freeing up additional targets. But will the increased usage stick now that Williams is healthy?

Chan Gailey is now running the Miami offense. Tight ends haven’t fared especially well in Gailey’s offenses over the years, though it’s worth noting that Tony Gonzalez had 155 targets, 96 receptions, 1,058 yards and 10 TDs in 2008, Gailey’s lone season as the Chiefs’ offensive coordinator. But just as Dan Quayle was no Jack Kennedy (hat tip, Lloyd Bentsen), Mike Gesicki is no Tony Gonzalez.

I’m still somewhat interested in Gesicki if the price is right, and he often falls into the TE2 range in drafts, at which point he’s a pretty attractive buy.

13. Noah Fant, Broncos

A first-round pick in 2019, Fant has 4.5 speed and elite athleticism, and he showcased it last year in big games (3-115-1 and 4-113-1) against the Browns and Texans. 

Thing is, the Broncos have a green QB, second-year man Drew Lock. There’s also a lot of target competition, with WRs Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler all looking to be fed. The Broncos even drafted Lock’s tight end at the University of Missouri, Albert Okwuegbunam.

Fant averaged just 2.8 targets in Lock’s five 2019 starts. I want to bet on Fant because he’s such a remarkable athlete – and really showed it off at times last year – but with the usage picture so opaque, I’m not reaching.

14. Dallas Goedert, Eagles

Goedert managed to finish TE10 in half-point PPR scoring last year even as the Eagles’ No. 2 tight end. He saw 87 targets last year, and he probably won’t see that many this year if Zach Ertz stays healthy and the Eagles’ receivers don’t all get hurt or fall on their faces. But Goedert has a TE2 floor, and he would become an immensely valuable asset if Ertz were to go down.

16. Jonnu Smith, Titans

The first three years of his career have been a slow burn, but it feels like he’s been building up to something bigger. Smith is a terrific athlete, and last year he was remarkably efficient, averaging 10.0 yards per target. The problem was that he only saw 44 targets.

Smith should get more work this year, but maybe not that much more. The Titans are hell-bent on playing 1970s football, running on a big percentage of their offensive snaps. There are few reliable pass catchers in Tennessee other than A.J. Brown, so Smith could carve out a decent target share for himself. Unfortunately, a decent share target share doesn’t count for much if there are only 24 or 25 targets to go around.

16 Jared Cook, Saints

Let Jared cook (said no one ever).

Actually, Cook was pretty good to fantasy managers in 2019, scoring a career-high nine TDs and finishing TE7. But a reckoning is coming. Cook averaged 10.8 yards per target – the best mark of his career by far – and scored touchdowns on 13.8% of his targets.

Cook is going to be grossly overdrafted this year. Don’t be the fish in the room.

17. Austin Hooper, Browns

The move from the Falcons to the Browns probably won’t do much good for Hooper’s numbers, but I’m sure he can find some solace in a four-year, $42 million contract. The Browns will likely throw a lot less often than the Falcons did, and they might use Hooper and David Njoku together in a lot of two-TE sets, which would dilute Hooper’s target share.

Fade Hooper this year.

18. Blake Jarwin, Cowboys

With Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb at wide receiver, there might not be many targets left for the Cowboys’ new starting tight end. Then again, Jason Witten has the movement skills of a cadaver these days, and Witten still managed to finish as a low-end TE1 last year.

19. Chris Herndon, Jets

My friend Michael Salfino of the Athletic is convinced that Herndon is THE best buy among all tight ends. Salfino notes that Herndon was very good as a rookie (9.0 yards per target), and that Sam Darnold seems eager to throw to his TEs. (Journeyman Ryan Griffin was briefly a fantasy stud last year while Herndon was sidelined with hamstring and rib injuries.)

Salfino makes some good points, and it’s not as if the Jets are loaded at wide receiver. I may bump up Herdon a spot or two in the days to come.

20. Jack Doyle, Colts

Some fantasy managers might remember Philip Rivers’ longtime rapport with Antonio Gates and think Rivers might click with his new tight end. I’m skeptical.

The Colts are probably going to be run-heavy. Doyle is slow, he’s averaged 9.0 yards per catch for his career, and he’s never scored more than five touchdowns in a single season in a season. The Colts also have Trey Burton, who was a washout in Chicago but might be ready to live up to the potential he showed in Philadelphia a few years ago now that he’s healthy again.

21. Irv Smith Jr., Vikings

Smith’s rookie numbers were lackluster, but his snap counts rose as the season wore on, and he could become a bigger factor in 2020. The Vikings aren’t deep at receiver, and TE Kyle Rudolph is in the dusk of his career. Smith is a good athlete, he had a terrific final college season at Alabama, and he was a second-round draft pick. His time may be coming soon.

22. Eric Ebron, Steelers

What a strange, unpredictable career this gentleman has had. It was only two years ago that he had 13 TD catches for the Colts, yet that seems like it happened in 1996.

I’m not very bullish on Ebron since the Steelers are loaded at wide receiver and probably won’t need to be pass-happy since their defense is so good. But this guy always seems to pop when you least expect it.

23. Ian Thomas, Panthers

He’s big and athletic and has shown flashes of promise over his first two seasons. But even in a starting role, Thomas probably isn’t going to get a lot of targets with Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel and Robby Anderson around. 

24. Greg Olsen, Seahawks

He’s going to be cheap in draft because he’s 35, but Olsen knows how to play, and he’s teaming up with one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Russell Wilson might really enjoy having this dude around. I’ve taken Olsen as my second or third TE in multiple best-ball drafts.

25. Gerald Everett, Rams

Everett was the Rams’ top tight end for most of last season, and in Week 5 he had a 136-yard game against the Seahawks. Tyler Higbee went nuts after Everett injured his knee late in the year and wound up finishing TE8, while Everett finished TE26. That’s roughly how I have them ranked for 2020, but I wouldn’t be surprised if their fantasy finishes this year were more like TE13 and TE16. 

Everett is the better athlete, was the higher draft pick and was the incumbent starter before he got hurt. Yes, Higbee was a revelation and has earned a bigger role, but the Rams used a lot of two-TE sets late last year, and Everett isn’t going to disappear.

26. O.J. Howard, Buccaneers

He’s an afterthought in fantasy drafts now, but let’s not forget that Howard was one of the best TE prospects to come out of the college ranks in years. He still has the freaky measurables and athleticism, and this is only Year 4 for him, so there’s still time. 

Howard is only going to be drafted in the deepest of leagues, but keep his card handy in your waiver wire Rolodex.

27. Dawson Knox, Bills

The arrival of Stefon Diggs doesn’t bode particularly well for Knox. The Bills are probably going to be run-heavy, and now that they have a pair of good WRs in Diggs and John Brown, Knox could be caught in a target squeeze. But he’s a plus athlete and flashed potential as a rookie, so he could be waiver-worthy.

28. David Njoku, Browns

Like O.J. Howard, Njoku was an elite TE prospect who has yet to fully pan out. His 4.6 speed and massive wingspan are good reasons to keep him on the radar.

29. Jimmy Graham, Bears

I have no idea what inspired Bears GM Ryan Pace to give Graham a two-year, $16 million contract with a $6 million signing bonus. This once-elite tight end was simply awful for the Packers last year. But, well, he’s the Bears’ No. 1 tight end now, which might translate into marginal fantasy value.

30. Jace Sternberger, Packers

This is supposed to be his big chance now that Jimmy Graham has left Green Bay, but Aaron Rodgers reportedly hasn’t warmed to the young TE (uh-oh), and there’s been talk in camp that Robert Tonyan could edge out Sternberger for the starting job.

The post Fitz on Fantasy: 2020 Tight End Rankings, 1-30 appeared first on The Football Girl.

Quarterback Rankings, 1-10

Quarterback Rankings, 11-40

Running Back Rankings, 1-10

Running Back Rankings, 11-30

Running Back Rankings, 31-70

Wide Receiver Rankings, 1-10

Wide Receiver Rankings, 11-30

For more personalized advice, be sure to check out Pat’s Patreon page where you can have direct access to Pat for your specific fantasy dilemmas.

31. Michael Gallup, Cowboys

On talent alone, Gallup deserves to be ranked with some of the other studly young WRs – D.K. Metcalf, Terry McLaurin, D.J. Chark et al. Thing is, Gallup already had to share targets with Amari Cooper, and then the Cowboys added first-round pick CeeDee Lamb, possibly the best receiver in a draft class brimming with WR talent.

Gallup turned 113 targets into 1,107 yards last season, so it’s not as if he needs to be an alpha receiver to have fantasy value. But Gallup’s target total probably isn’t going up, and after averaging 16.8 yards per catch and 9.8 yards per target in 2019, he might not be quite as efficient this year.

I want to like him more, but the opaque target picture warrants caution.

32. Brandin Cooks, Texans

Cooks sustained two concussions in a span of 25 days last year, and he had sustained three concussions prior to 2019. That’s a little troubling, no question, but it should be noted that the two games Cooks missed last year were his first absences since he was a rookie in 2014

Before last year, Cooks had rattled off four consecutive 1,000-yard seasons. Now paired with Deshaun Watson, Cooks has an excellent chance to hit the 1,000-yard mark again if he plays 16 games, yet he can typically be grabbed in the eighth round of 12-team drafts.

33. Marvin Jones, Lions

I have a theory that players with boring names tend to be underdrafted, and vice versa. Jones provides boring value year after year, while fantasy managers fall all over themselves in pursuit of a Jamison Crowder breakout season that never comes. 

A shady porch on a late-summer afternoon … a good book and a glass of wine on a Friday night … the first cup of coffee on a Sunday morning: The boring stuff can be pretty rewarding sometimes. It’s not too late to cultivate an appreciation for the unexciting value of Marvin Jones.

34. Jarvis Landry, Browns

He’s six games into his NFL career and hasn’t missed a game. Still, it’s slightly worrisome that Landry had hip surgery in early February.

We should probably worry about a dip in targets, too. Landry hasn’t seen fewer than 131 targets in a season since he was a rookie. He had 138 targets last year, but Odell Beckham was playing hurt, and new Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski has a reputation of being run-heavy.

A dip in targets paired with a dip in efficiency could make Landry a bit of a value trap. He averaged 8.5 yards per target in 2019 after averaging 7.0 over his first five seasons. Say he averaged 7.0 yards per target on 130 targets. That works out to 910 yards – and we know Landry hasn’t exactly been a prolific TD scorer.

I started out about 7-8 spots higher on Landry during the rankings process, but I’m starting to get cold feet.

35. A.J. Green, Bengals

He missed all last year with an ankle injury, he missed almost half of 2018 with a toe injury, and he’s already dealt with a hamstring issue in training camp. Green is 32 now, and with the recent injury history, I’m just not interested in him at his ADP of WR30.

36. Diontae Johnson, Steelers

The 2019 rookie receiver class was a good one, and Johnson somehow led the class with 59 receptions despite the Steelers’ QB situation turning into a dumpster fire after an elbow injury knocked Ben Roethlisberger out for the season. Johnson’s talent is legitimate, but the Steelers have a lot of promising pass catchers, and they probably aren’t going to be pass-happy this year since their defense should be among the best in the league. Don’t overpay.

37. Anthony Miller, Bears

After Taylor Gabriel sustained a season-ending injury in Week 12, Miller’s stat lines in Chicago’s next three games were 9-140-0, 3-42-1 and 9-118-1. (He then laid an egg in Week 16 and barely played in Week 17.) Gabriel is gone, so Miller should be a full-timer in 2020. Talented and able to play outside or in the slot, he’s an appealing third-year breakout candidate.

38. Christian Kirk, Cardinals

I like this guy and want to like him even more, but I’m not sure we get the inevitable Kirk breakout in 2020. The offseason arrival of target hog DeAndre Hopkins doesn’t necessarily kill Kirk’s fantasy value, but the combined presence of Hopkins and Larry Fitzgerald is problematic. Better to jump on the Kirk bandwagon in 2021, when Fitz is (presumably) retired, sipping mai tais on a beach somewhere, allowing Kirk to become a full-time slot receiver.

39. Julian Edelman, Patriots

It’s not that Edelman is 34. It’s not that the injuries – knee, shoulder, ribs, foot – have been piling up in recent years. The reason Edelman ranks well below ADP and expert consensus for me is the departure of Tom Brady.

The appeal of having Edelman on your roster was getting those games where Brady targeted him 16 times and Edelman had 12 or 13 catches for 140 yards. If you had Edelman on your roster in that kind of a week (especially in a PPR league), you almost felt as if you were cheating. If you were going against Edelman in that kind of a week, you wanted to throw your shoe through the TV screen as you watched the receptions and yardage pile up.

Will we see those types of games out of Edelman now that Cam Newton will be quarterbacking the Patriots? Unlikely. The Brady-Edelman chemistry was the product of thousands of reps and hundreds of practices. It takes years for a quarterback and wide receiver to sync up to the degree that Brady and Edelman had. Newton and Edelman won’t have that mutual sense of timing. Newton has always been more of a “see it, throw it” passer than an anticipatory passer.

It’s hard to envision any 12- or 13-catch games for Edelman this year, and without that high weekly upside, it’s going to be hard for him to return a profit even on a WR3 price.

40. Mecole Hardman, Chiefs

Most fantasy analysts who do player rankings also do stat projections. I don’t do stat projections, and players like Hardman are the reason why.

A set of 2020 projections for the Chiefs will have Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and Sammy Watkins playing a full or nearly full season, and if that happens, it’s hard to project Hardman for significantly more than the 41 targets he had last season. And if Hardman has 50 or fewer targets, it’s going to be nearly impossible to finish as a top-40 receiver – especially when his 2019 efficiency numbers (20.7 yards per catch, 13.1 yards per target) are unsustainable.

But what if Kelce goes down? What if Sammy Watkins has foot problems again? What if Tyreek Hill gets hurt or has a new set of legal problems? Any disruption to the Chiefs’ pass-catching hierarchy would almost surely mean greater opportunity for Hardman, and we saw last year how electrifying this dude can be. Put the ball in his hands and try to follow the blur.

Just one injury to a Kansas City pass catcher could turn Hardman into a weekly must-start. John Daigle of Rotoworld compared Hardman to a straight-flush draw in poker: He doesn’t have much tangible value at the moment, but there are lot of “outs” that could give Hardman’s fantasy managers a huge hand.

41. Jalen Reagor, Eagles

It’s hard to rank the rookie receivers for redraft leagues, but Reagor is my favorite at the moment. The Eagles’ offense had a screaming need for a speedy outside receiver, and Reagor brings the goods. He’s also reportedly tearing up his first NFL training camp.

42. CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys

Lamb was my favorite rookie receiver going into the NFL draft. (For an idea of what he’s capable of, just Google “Lamb Oklahoma-Texas 2019” … sorry, Longhorns fans.) It’s not ideal that he’ll have to share targets with Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup, but it doesn’t suck that Lamb will be catching passes from Dak Prescott. 

43. John Brown, Bills

Seemingly past the health issues related to the sickle cell trait that troubled him during the latter part of his four-year run with the Cardinals, Brown topped the 1,000-yard mark last season and managed to average 9.2 yards per target – which is a hell of a feat when so many of those “targets” are errant throws from Josh Allen.

The arrival of Stefon Diggs kills some of the appeal, but Brown is a talented dude with home-run capability, and he could offer value if he starts sliding in your draft.

44. Mike Williams, Chargers

He would have ranked 5-6 spots higher, but a shoulder injury leaves his Week 1 availability in doubt. Once healthy, Williams could be hindered by subpar QB play. The talent is intoxicating, but Williams isn’t a buy for me this year.

45. Sterling Shepard, Giants

It’s hard to sort out the Giants’ top three receivers in terms of fantasy value. Whichever way you want to order them, I’m not sure I can make a compelling argument against you. For me, it’s kind of a “Goldilocks and the Three Bears” thing: Tate is too old, Slayton is too young, and Shepard is just right.

Well, it’s not just that, and I don’t know that any of these guys are “just right.” Tate may end up the most valuable because he’s likely to get the most slot snaps, and we know that slot usage can be a path to fantasy value. But I like that Shepard was targeted 83 times in his 10 games last year and seemed to be the crutch on which young QB Daniel Jones leaned.

46. Henry Ruggs III, Raiders

In a draft loaded with WR talent, Ruggs was the first receiver to come of the board, going to the Raiders with the 12th pick. The consensus was that Jerry Jeudy or CeeDee Lamb would have been better choices for Oakland. Maybe that’s why Ruggs has been getting surprisingly little love in dynasty rookie drafts, often falling to the late first or early second round.

Ruggs never had more than 46 catches or 746 receiving yards in any of his three seasons at Alabama, but he scored 25 touchdown on 98 career receptions and two carries – so he found pay dirt 1 out of every 4 times he touched the ball. Ruggs has freaky, Tyreek Hill-caliber speed, and if you’ve seen the highlight reel from his high school basketball days, you know how athletic he is. I don’t mind betting on a guy with this much big-play potential late in a draft.

47. Preston Williams, Dolphins

After inexplicably going undrafted last year, Williams put up a 32-428-3 stat line in eight games before tearing his ACL. He’s reportedly looked good in training camp and is on track to play in Week 1, so there may be less of an injury discount than speculators might have hoped.

48. Golden Tate, Giants

You know the deal: limited ceiling, sturdy floor. It’s not a sexy profile, but in the year of COVID-19, a receiver who has a good chance to get you at least 10 PPR points in any given week might be more valuable than he would be otherwise.

49. Deebo Samuel, 49ers

Samuel was so good and so entertaining as a rookie that it was a gut punch when we learned in the offseason that he’d suffered a Jones fracture in his foot. Not only did he post a 57-802-3 season as a receiver, he rushed for 224 yards over his last eight games (playoffs included).

Were it not for the foot injury, I probably would have had Samuel grouped with some of the other promising young WR2s – maybe somewhere between Courtland Sutton and Michael Gallup. The 49ers are reportedly “hopeful” Samuel will be able to suit up in Week 1, but foot injuries are worrisome, and it’s usually prudent to fade injury optimism in fantasy football.

50. Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers

As a one-year wonder from a Pac-12 school, Aiyuk wouldn’t have been that enticing to me if not for the Deebo Samuel foot injury. There could be a significant role for Aiyuk right away, but he’s dealing with a hamstring injury as of this writing. If there’s any word that Aiyuk’s Week 1 availability is in doubt, I’ll immediately drop him at least 10 spots.

51. Breshad Perriman, Jets

A first-round pick of the Ravens in 2015, Perriman was vexed by injuries early in his career before showing life late in the 2018 season for the Browns. He then exploded last December for the Buccaneers, catching 25 passes for 506 yards and five TDs over his last five games as Chris Godwin and Mike Evans dealt with injuries.

Perriman has an excellent chance to emerge as the No. 1 receiver for Sam Darnold, who could be on the verge of a breakout. But beware: Perriman will face a murderers’ row of opposing cornerbacks over the first half of the season, so it could be a bumpy ride early on.

52. Jerry Jeudy, Broncos

Jeudy fans couldn’t have been pleased with his landing spot. He’ll have to share targets with Courtland Sutton, Noah Fant and fellow rookie K.J. Hamler, and young QB Drew Lock might not be ready to elevate his pass catchers after only five NFL starts. Jeudy is a first-rate prospect, but we might not get much fantasy value out of him in Year 1.

53. Emmanuel Sanders, Saints

Some rankers have Manny as a top-40 receiver. He’s had a nice career, but I’m finding it hard to be enthusiastic about a 33-year-old who’ll have to subsist on Michael Thomas’s leftovers.

54. Darius Slayton, Giants

A relatively unheralded member of last year’s rookie WR class, this fifth-round pick from Auburn had 48 catches for 740 yards and eight TDs. Slayton had two TD catches in three different games, including a 10-121-2 outing against the Jets and a 5-154-2 performance against the Eagles.

It was an impressive debut, but Slayton packed a lot of his production into a handful of games, and his “meh” college numbers make me wonder if his rookie season was somewhat illusory. I suspect I won’t end up with him in any of my drafts.

55. Justin Jefferson, Vikings

The rookie from LSU had 111 catches for 1,540 yards and 18 TDs in his final season in Baton Rouge and was a first-round selection of the Vikings, who had a big need at receiver after dealing away Stefon Diggs. So what’s not to like?

Well, one potential issue is that Jefferson was used almost exclusively as a slot receiver at LSU, and the Vikings might not have a lot of slot snaps available, since they don’t use as many three-WR sets as other teams, and since they’ve given Adam Thielen slot snaps in the past. There’s target opportunity for Jefferson, but there’s also some square-peg potential here.

56. Jamison Crowder, Jets

He’s never had 850 receiving yards in a single season, and he’s scored 20 touchdowns in 72 career games, yet there’s enthusiasm for Crowder every year. He’s a 177-pound slot receiver whose best-ever fantasy finish in half-point PPR scoring was WR30. No thanks.

57. Sammy Watkins, Chiefs

I know, I know. He’s let us down every which way over the last six years. But Watkins is a big, fast former first-round pick who plays with the best pure passer in football, Patrick Mahomes. That’s worth something, right?

No? OK … let’s just move on.

58. Laviska Shenault, Jaguars

This is one of my favorite ways to spend a late-round pick. I fell in love with Shenault when he was a sophomore at Colorado. He’s a 227-pound brute who’s tough to bring down and faster than his timed speed. Shenault can line up anywhere – out wide, in the slot, at running back, as a wildcat QB. I don’t think it’s going to take much time for Shenault to establish himself as the Jaguars’ No. 2 pass-catching threat behind D.J. Chark. Get in on the ground floor, because I think Shenault is going to be a fun player to have on your roster.

59. Curtis Samuel, Panthers

Samuel finished in the top 10 in air yards last season but ended the season with only 627 receiving yards. That’s what happens when those air yards are coming from the likes of Kyle Allen and Will Grier. It’s an abnormality that suggests Samuel is due for a breakout this season, and maybe he is, except …

Well, Teddy Bridgewater might be a below-average starting quarterback, and he’s never been a vertical passer. D.J. Moore is a star. The Panthers brought in Robby Anderson in the offseason. There simply might be too many obstacles blocking the path to a Samuel breakout.

60. Allen Lazard, Packers

He’s Green Bay’s No. 2 receiver by default. Even though I’m a Packers fan, I still have no idea whether Lazard is any good. But Aaron Rodgers seems to like him, and that counts for a lot, since Rodgers has been known to freeze out receivers he doesn’t trust.

61. Parris Campbell, Colts

Hamstring injury, abdominal strain, broken hand, broken foot – Campbell’s rookie season was an injury-plagued mess. A second-round pick from Ohio State, Campbell has lethal 4.3 speed, and at 6-0, 205 pounds, he’s not small. Campbell is likely to be the Colts’ primary slot receiver, and he’s very inexpensive in drafts right now.

62. N’Keal Harry, Patriots

Harry had a nice prospect profile coming out of Arizona State, but his rookie season was a washout due largely to ankle and hamstring injuries. The 6-2, 228-pound Harry has good hands, he was terrific at the catch point in college, and he’s surprisingly nimble after the catch, even though he lacks exceptional speed. It’s still unclear what sort of pro he’s going to be, but his size and his first-round draft capital make it tempting to toss a coin in the wishing well.

63. Michael Pittman Jr., Colts

Remember Vincent Jackson? He was a big, fast receiver who had six 1,000-yard seasons over a seven-year stretch from 2008 to 2014. His first three 1,000-yard seasons were with the Chargers, and Philip Rivers was always happy to throw downfield to big V-Jax and let him use his size to try to make a play. Pittman might be Rivers’ new Vincent Jackson.

Jackson was 6-5. Pittman is 6-4 and not quite as fast, but he’s known for his physicality and terrific hands. If the kid can make a few plays for Rivers early on, maybe the old quarterback will keep throwing to him.

The Colts figure to be run-heavy, and T.Y. Hilton and Parris Campbell are vying for targets too, but I think Rivers is really going to like Pittman.

64. James Washington, Steelers

Washington is sort of an odd duck – a vertical receiver who isn’t especially fast and is built more like a running back than a wideout. Like Dionte Johnson, Washington turned in a pretty good season in 2019 despite the lousy quarterbacking the Steelers got after Ben Roethlisberger went down. Washington averaged 16.7 yards per catch and 9.2 yards per targets – impressive numbers when you’re trying to catch balls from Mason Rudolph and Devlin “Duck” Hodges.

There’s a lot of target competition in Pittsburgh, and the Steelers might not throw the ball around a lot this season. It might take an injury to another receiver for Washington to pop.

65. John Ross, Bengals

The Bengals have a crowded WR room with Tyler Boyd, A.J. Green, Auden Tate, rookie Tee Higgins and Ross. That sort of intramural target competition discourages investments in the lower-rung guys, but man, Ross is a big play waiting to happen.

His 2017 rookie season was a disaster, and he’s dealt with a litany of injuries since entering the league, but Ross has scored 10 TDs in 21 games over the last two years, and in 2019 he averaged 18.1 yards per catch. In deeper leagues, I don’t mind making an investment in a dude with 4.2 speed.

66. Robby Anderson, Panthers

Carolina seemed to be a curious free-agency destination for Anderson, who would appear to be caught in a target squeeze with D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel already on hand. But Anderson had played for new Panthers head coach Matt Rhule at Temple. When Anderson was dismissed for failing to meet academic standards, Rhule fought for Anderson’s reinstatement, convincing Temple to change a punitive policy that made students wait five years before they could return to the university after an academic dismissal.

It’s a nice story, but the target squeeze remains. I’m down on Anderson’s fantasy value, but Rhule might be motivated to keep him involved in the offense.

67. Steven Sims, Washington

An undrafted free agent from Kansas, Sims got a chance to be Washington’s slot man after the coaching staff realized Trey Quinn wasn’t any good, and Sims had 20-234-4 over the last four games of the season. He’s small (5-9, 184) and slow (4.61), but Sims has route-running moxie. He also has ample opportunity on a team that has little at wide receiver beyond Terry McLaurin.

68. Randall Cobb, Texans

Apparently Cobb is magnetically drawn to star quarterbacks. He spent the first eight years of his career with Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay, played with Dak Prescott in Dallas last year, and now joins Deshaun Watson in Houston. Cobb had 55-823-3 for the Cowboys last year and could be similarly useful to the Texans.

69. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals

It’s been wrongly said before, but this is probably the last ride for this future Hall of Famer. Last year he turned 109 targets into a 75-804-4 stat line. Fitz may not see 100 targets if DeAndre Hopkins and Christian Kirk stay healthy all year, but he should still be able to provide useful depth in PPR leagues.

70. Corey Davis, Titans

I suppose we can still hope that Davis follows the DeVante Parker career path and eventually starts paying off on a first-round draft investment. But Davis has been a bust to date, and now A.J. Brown is the undisputed No. 1 receiver in Tennessee. Davis looks like the clear No. 2, but that might not mean much on one of the NFL’s run-heaviest teams.

.

The post Fitz on Fantasy: 2020 Wide Receiver Rankings, 31-70 appeared first on The Football Girl.

Quarterback Rankings, 1-10

Quarterback Rankings, 11-40

Running Back Rankings, 1-10

Running Back Rankings, 11-30

Running Back Rankings, 31-70

Wide Receiver Rankings, 1-10

For more personalized advice, be sure to check out Pat’s Patreon page where you can have direct access to Pat for your specific fantasy dilemmas.

11. Odell Beckham Jr., Browns

OBJ hasn’t fully satisfied fantasy managers since 2016, so it’s understandable that a lot of people need a “show me” season before they climb back aboard the Beckham bandwagon. He’s been hurt a lot, he’s a diva, we still aren’t entirely sure whether Baker Mayfield is a good quarterback, and the Cleveland offense could be run-heavy under new head coach Kevin Stefanski.

Is there any doubt, though, that Beckham is going to ball out if he’s healthy? Dealing with a sports hernia all last season and playing in a broken offense, OBJ still had 74 catches for 1,035 yards. And who can forget how good he was during his first three years in the league, when he averaged 6.7 catches, 95.9 yards and 0.81 TDs per game? He’s only 27, so that mouth-watering upside is still there.

12. D.J. Moore, Panthers

Denniston Moore Jr. is coming off the first of what should be many 1,000-yard seasons, and there’s little doubt he’ll be a star for years to come. I like him, but the sharps are swarming him like bees on a marigold, so I haven’t been getting him in any industry drafts. (Maybe I’ll be able to get him in one of my home leagues.) 

Should we be bothered that he’s only scored six touchdowns in two seasons? Probably not. He deserves a mulligan for his rookie year (which was a solid debut otherwise), and the Panthers’ QB situation was a tire fire last season.

But I don’t know that Teddy Bridgewater is the QB to help Moore hit double-digit touchdowns, and while I’m excited to see what the new Matt Rhule/Joe Brady offense will look like in Carolina, Christian McCaffrey is sure to command plenty of targets, and Curtis Samuel and Robby Anderson are also in the mix.

I’m reluctant to invoke the tired old “too many mouths to feed” cliché, because Moore might be such a special talent that Samuel and Anderson end up marginalized. And as bad as the Carolina defense figures to be, the Panthers might be exceedingly pass-happy since they figure to be playing from behind a lot.

Moore is a stud, and I think he’ll soon be a perennial top-10 receiver, but I’m not ready to go all in just yet.

13. Adam Thielen, Vikings

Thielen lost his tag-team partner when Stefon Diggs left for Buffalo, and that’s almost assuredly a good thing for Thielen’s fantasy outlook. After all, Shawn Michaels’ legendary wrestling career didn’t really take off until he super-kicked tag-team partner Marty Jannetty through a plate-glass window.

In 2018, Thielen had a career-high 153 targets, leading to a 113-1,373-9 stat line and a WR6 fantasy finish (half-point PPR). That sort of a target total isn’t out of the question for Thielen this year, though something in the 125-130 neighborhood is probably more realistic.

A hamstring injury limited Thielen to 10 games and 418 yards last year, but aside from slight drops in catch rate and yards per target, there were no signs of diminished effectiveness. I don’t know how well a late bloomer with average athleticism is going to age, but Thielen is only 30, so it’s still too early to worry about age-related decline.

14. Amari Cooper, Cowboys

Tickets to the Amari Cooper bandwagon are selling as sluggishly as tour bus tickets in Provo, Utah. One reason for the malaise is that Cooper will have to share targets with impressive third-year WR Michael Gallup and first-round rookie CeeDee Lamb. I also think people are simply bored with Cooper, which may be why I’ve been in drafts where 20 receivers come off the board ahead of him.

Cooper finished WR9 last year despite dealing with a knee injury late in the season. He averaged a career-best 10.0 yards per target despite facing several of the cornerbacks in the league. He’s still only 26. 

This could be a very nice buying opportunity if everyone else in your league is fading Coop.

15. Calvin Ridley, Falcons

The fantasy football community always falls hard for the acclaimed route runners. Antonio Brown, Keenan Allen Stefon Diggs won hearts with their precise stems and well-sold feints. Now Ridley is the route-running crush du jour.

It’s not just the route running, though. Ridley’s usage spiked last season after the Falcons traded Mohamed Sanu to the Patriots, and without a proven No. 3 receiver on the roster, maybe there’s room for Julio Jones and Ridley to both turn in WR1 production in 2020. Atlanta faces one of the NFL’s most difficult schedules, so the Falcons may be facing a lot of pass-heavy game scripts. 

The appeal here is understandable. I just find it hard to project Ridley for more than about 120 targets with Julio around, so I can’t quite see the WR1 upside that some other folks are seeing.

16. Robert Woods, Rams

There’s been a lot of offseason chatter about how Rams TE Tyler Higbee went nuclear down the stretch last year, but Woods had 95 or more receiving yards in five of his last seven games, catching 52 passes over that stretch.

After four sluggish years in Buffalo to begin his NFL career, Woods has blossomed with the Rams, averaging 88 catches and 1,177 yards over the last two seasons. Somehow Woods only made it into the end zone twice last year, and TD scoring is the one blemish on Woods’ profile. He’s scored only 25 times in 100 career games, and he’s never had more than six touchdowns in a single season.

Despite the history, there’s surely a TD bounce coming if Woods continues to get the same sort of usage – and there’s really no reason he shouldn’t. This is a stable profile and a rock-solid investment.

17. Cooper Kupp, Rams

No receiver has been more difficult for me to rank than Kupp. Through the first eight weeks of 2019, he had 58 catches for 792 yards and five TDs, making him the WR2 over that span behind only Michael Thomas. Then, over the second half of the season, he topped 65 receiving yards only once, when he had 99 yards in Week 17.

A big part of it was usage. Through the Rams’ first 11 games, Kupp played 88% of the offensive snaps. In their last five games, the Rams went with two-TE, two-WR sets far more often, and Kupp’s snap share fell to 63%.

Chris Raybon of The Action Network, one of the smartest fantasy analysts around, makes a strong case for Kupp, noting that he’s a close friend of Rams QB Jared Goff and that, unlike Robert Woods, Kupp was immediately productive upon reaching the NFL.

It’s slightly troubling that the Rams came out of an offensive slump last year by going to heavy use of 12 personnel, which did Kupp no favors. If the Rams use 12 as their base offense in 2020, this may be too high a ranking for Kupp. But I tend to agree with Raybon on this, and it’s entirely possible a WR17 ranking is too conservative.

18. A.J. Brown, Titans

Brown isn’t going to average 20.2 yards per catch and 12.5 yards per target again, but he’s also sure to see more than the 84 targets he saw last year if he plays 16 games.

So the efficiency will come down and the volume will go up. I’m not sure whether it will amount to a push, but I’m being a little more conservative than other rankers are with Brown, even though I think he’s the real deal. The Titans have shown us that they’ll be outrageously run-heavy when the game script affords them that luxury, so projecting Brown for a WR1 season seems like wishcasting.

19. D.K. Metcalf, Seahawks

If I did rankings based solely on projections, I’d have to put Tyler Lockett ahead of Metcalf. There’s probably a 60% chance Lockett scores more fantasy points than Metcalf this season. But Lockett has a relative narrow range of outcomes. Metcalf is a size/speed/contested catch unicorn whose upside might be somewhere close to peak Randy Moss.

Metcalf had 58 catches for 900 yards and seven touchdowns as a rookie. If his ascendance is gradual and he has, say, a 65-1,000-8 season in 2020, you won’t be too disappointed about having bought him at his current fifth-round ADP. But if this 6-4, 229-pound, blazing-fast, ridiculously strong 22-year-old harnesses his superpowers in Year 2 and starts to approach full potential, that fifth-round price will look like a screaming bargain.

Metcalf is one of my favorite buys this year.

20. Terry McLaurin, Washington

Here’s another of my favorite 2020 buys, although his price is rising faster than college tuition. 

McLaurin produced a 58-919-7 stat line in only 14 games last season, and his star power was evident whenever he took the field. He could have a target share near or above 25% this year since Washington has little else at the WR position. 

The only thing keeping McLaurin’s ADP in the low-end WR2/high-end WR3 range is the Washington QB situation. But rookie Dwayne Haskins played competently down the stretch after looking lost in his first few starts, and he and McLaurin were college teammates at Ohio State. Don’t let a lack of faith in Haskins be the reason you fade a stud like McLaurin.

21. D.J. Chark, Jaguars

After a forgettable rookie season, Chark came alive last year, catching 73 passes for 1,008 yards and eight touchdowns. He’s going to be the Jaguars’ No. 1 receiver this season, and perhaps the only thing that could keep Sutton’s target share from climbing higher than last year’s 20% would be a huge rookie season from talented second-round pick Laviska Shenault.

Even if Shenault is impactful from the start, there could be plenty of targets to go around, since Vegas projects the Jaguars to be a five-win team, and they’ll probably be throwing a lot to try to stay in games.

22. Courtland Sutton, Broncos

This WR2 tier is just chock full of precocious young talent, and Sutton is another ascendant comet. He’s 6-4, 216 pounds, and he absolutely dominates defenders at the catch point. (He also plays faster than his 4.54 timed speed.)

Sutton finished WR19 last year, and I’m a little worried that might be his ceiling this year with Drew Lock trying to settle in as the Broncos’ starting quarterback. Lock played reasonably well in five starts last season, but he wasn’t exactly a flawless QB prospect, and there are bound to be bumps. The Broncos also added WRs Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler in this years draft and have a good young TE in Noah Fant, so there’s a bit of target competition for Sutton.

It’s possible Sutton is good enough to overcome these obstacles and have a low-end WR1 type of season, but something in the mid- to low-end WR2 range is probably a more reasonable place to set our expectations.

23. Tyler Lockett, Seahawks

This is probably to low for Lockett, a proven talent playing with one of the best quarterbacks in the league, but the WR2 tier is loaded with talent this year, and I just like some of the youngsters a little more than Lockett. 

24. DeVante Parker, Dolphins

After teasing us for four years, Parker went off in 2019, finally making good on his first-round draft pedigree.

Parker finished WR7 in half-point PPR scoring and was fabulous down the stretch, with four 100-yard days and five TDs over Miami’s last seven games. That all happened after rookie Preston Williams tore his ACL in Week 9, so it’s fair to worry about some statistical pullback for Parker now that Williams appears to be fully recovered.

But Parker could have a little bit of recoil and still be the sort of receiver you’re happy to put into your lineup every week. A possible QB transition in Miami isn’t much of a concern since the options are either Ryan Fitzpatrick, whose YOLO style usually means good things for his pass catchers, or Tua Tagovailoa, one of the most accurate throwers to enter the NFL in the last decade.

25. Will Fuller, Texans

Oh, please, let this porcelain dynamo stay healthy for a full season. Over the last two years, Fuller has averaged a robust 10.1 yards per target, and he figures to get more work this year now that target hog DeAndre Hopkins has left for Arizona. Fuller has averaged 14.3 yards per catch over four NFL seasons and has the speed of Hermes.

Fuller doesn’t have the constitution of a Greek god, however. He’s missed 14 games over the last two years and 22 games over his four NFL seasons. He’s listed at 184 pounds and has reportedly added muscle to try to ward off injuries, but his durability is clearly an issue.

What makes Fuller an attractive buy is that the injury risk is embedded in his price, so buyers stand to turn a big profit if he can make it through the season healthy. Even if he misses a few games, fine. You get to replace him with a bench player; it’s not as if you have to take a zero in that spot. And as long as Fuller is healthy, you’ll be happy to plug him into your lineup very week. Fuller would probably have to miss a significant chunk of the season not to pay off on his WR35 ADP.

26. Tyler Boyd, Bengals

I’m pro-Boyd, but in the interest of fairness, allow me to present an unflattering stat: Boyd had the seventh-highest target total (148) last season and still only finished WR23 in fantasy scoring.

Some of the blame goes to the Cincinnati quarterbacks, who completed only 57.7% of their throws and averaged just 6.45 yards per pass attempt. In 2018, Boyd had a modest 108 targets and finished WR17, so it’s not as if he’s a slacker.

The Bengals’ passing game should be more potent this season with rookie Joe Burrow taking over at quarterback. A.J. Green is back after missing the entire 2019 season, and his return could eat into Boyd’s target total, but the oft-injured Green is already dealing with a hamstring issue and is far from a lock to play a full season.

Burrow’s primary slot receiver at LSU last season, Justin Jefferson, had 111 catches for 1,540 yards and 18 touchdowns. Boyd obviously isn’t going to put up those types of numbers, but it’s exciting to imagine what he might be able to do as Burrow’s primary slot man in 2020.

27. Keenan Allen, Chargers

Allen is a hell of a player, but I’m staying away.

The Chargers had 597 pass attempts in 2019. They’re probably not coming close to that number in 2020, and they could conceivably be south of 500 pass attempts. This is a team built for a ball-control offense. The Chargers have a terrific defense, so they should be competitive in most games, yet their QB situation looks shaky, with mediocre veteran Tyrod Taylor and raw rookie Justin Herbert as the two options.

Allen has averaged 148 targets and 101 catches over the last three seasons. The Chargers aren’t going to throw enough for Allen to hit those numbers, and he’ll have target competition from three pretty good pass catchers: RB Austin Ekeler, WR Mike Williams and TE Hunter Henry.

28. Stefon Diggs, Bills

The move from Minnesota to Buffalo probably bodes ill for Diggs’ fantasy outlook.

The Bills had 513 pass attempts in 2019 and figure to be run-heavy again this year. The Bills actually threw more passes than the Vikings attempted last year (466), but while Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins was a model of efficiency, completing 69.1 percent of his throws and averaging 8.1 yards per attempt, Bills QB Josh Allen completed 58.8 percent of his throws and averaged 6.7 yards per attempt.

Diggs averaged 17.9 yards per catch in 2019 – a career high by far. In four previous seasons, he averaged 11.6 yards per catch. And what happens when Diggs, wo can be a bit of a diva, starts seeing errant throws from the notoriously scattershot Allen? The Bills also have a good No. 2 receiver in John Brown, so it’s not as if Diggs is in line for a gargantuan target share.

As with Keenan Allen, Diggs is a terrific player operating in what appears to be an unfavorable ecosystem.

29. Marquise Brown, Ravens

Admittedly, I find it a bit concerning that some of my 13-year-old son’s friends are bigger than Brown. “Hollywood” is listed at 5-9, 170 pounds, and it’s almost comical to see him lined up next to 325-pound linemen in the Ravens’ huddle, looking as if they were members of different species.

But Brown is electric. He scored touchdowns on just under 10 percent of his 71 targets last season and had two-TD games against both the Dolphins and Rams last year.

Target volume is an issue since the Ravens are so run-happy, but there’s reason for optimism on that. Baltimore passed on only 45.9% of its offensive snaps – a ratio straight out of the 1970s. The Ravens had the luxury of running so much because they had so many favorable game scripts. Such is the case when your record is 14-2. Odds are things won’t go quite as smoothly for the Ravens in 2020, so they’ll have to throw a bit more. Also, tight ends accounted for 40.9% of team targets last year – an outrageously large share that figures to come down in 2020. And while the Ravens drafted a couple of receivers, Brown is still the clear No. 1.

If this speedy little guy can get to just 100 targets – and I think there’s a good chance he does – he could be an immensely valuable fantasy asset.

30. T.Y. Hilton, Colts

Hilton turns 31 in November and missed six games with leg injuries last year, so this once-appealing profile has become less enticing. He still figures to be the Colts’ No. 1 receiver, but promising youngsters Parris Campbell and Michael Pittman will vie for targets as well, and Indy projects to be somewhat run-heavy. Hilton could still be a useful asset, but don’t overpay.

The post Fitz on Fantasy: 2020 Wide Receiver Rankings, 11-30 appeared first on The Football Girl.

Quarterback Rankings, 1-10

Quarterback Rankings, 11-40

Running Back Rankings, 1-10

Running Back Rankings, 11-30

Running Back Rankings, 31-70

Wide Receiver Rankings, 11-30

For more personalized advice, be sure to check out Pat’s Patreon page where you can have direct access to Pat for your specific fantasy dilemmas.

1. Michael Thomas, Saints

What follows is going to make it seem as if I’m building a case against Thomas as the WR1. Not true. He’s a sublime performer, and he’s my WR1, too.

Thomas finished as the WR6 in both 2017 and 2018, averaging 12.9 and 15.8 fantasy points per game in those two seasons. Last year he was the WR1 by a mile, soaring to 18.8 fantasy points per game. The difference was mostly in target volume. He was targeted 149 times in 2017, 147 times in 2018, and 185 times last year. His target share has gone from 27.8 to 28.3% to 31.8%

It seems unlikely that Thomas could maintain a target share north of 30%. The Saints haven’t had a decent second receiver since Thomas was a rookie paired with Brandin Cooks in 2016, but they added veteran Emmanuel Sanders in the offseason. RB Alvin Kamara missed two games last year and was banged up for much of the year, and TE Jared Cook missed a pair of games, too. The Saints probably won’t need to feed Thomas another 185 targets.

The point isn’t that Thomas should be ranked lower than WR1. The point is that Thomas probably shouldn’t be a top-10 overall pick in draft – not when high-quality, high-volume RBs are so scarce. 

Thomas is a magnificent physical specimen and has compiled incredible numbers through his first four seasons. Just realize that he could conceivably finish WR6 again, leaving you wondering why you took him in the middle of the first-round when there were still stud running backs available.

2. Davante Adams, Packers

At least two supersmart fantasy analysts – Justin Boone of theScore.com and Matt Harmon of Yahoo – have Adams ranked RB1 ahead of Michael Thomas. And I get it. It’s not hard to project Adams as the NFL target leader.

With a screaming need at wide receiver, the Packers’ front office inexplicably decided not to draft a single one despite being presented with one of the most highly regarded WR classes in memory. Adams averaged 10.6 targets a game last season, and without a proven sidekick, he could easily average 11 or more targets a game, which would put him in the neighborhood of 176 targets.

Since 2017, Adams has ranked sixth, first and sixth among receivers in fantasy points per game. After two ugly seasons to begin his career, Adams has blossomed into a true star, and the combination of talent and volume could lead to a monster season for him in 2020.

3. Tyreek Hill, Chiefs

Hill is quite possibly the fastest player in the league, he plays with the NFL’s best quarterback, and he’s remarkably good at making contested catches despite measuring 5-10 (which seems generous by at least an inch) and 185 pounds.

My friend Mike Tagliere of FantasyPros.com has noted that Hill has finished as a top-24 receiver in 44.1% of the weeks he’s played over his career, and that he averaged only 7.4 targets per game last year.

Sure, Hill’s production can be a little erratic relative to a human metronome like Michael Thomas. But Hill can be such a difference-maker. He missed four games last year and still managed to turn in stat lines of 11-157-1, 6-140-1, 5-80-2 and 5-67-2. And it’s not as if he stunk otherwise. In his 12 games, the only times he didn’t get at least 55 receiving yards were in the season opener against Jacksonville and in a November game against the Chargers in which he got hurt and played only seven snaps.

In 2018, Hill had 100 yards, a touchdown or both in half of his 16 games, and only twice did he fail to get 50 receiving yards.

I’m all in for the weekly upside here.

4. Julio Jones, Falcons

Some people are allergic to peanuts, some are allergic to shellfish, and some have a touchdown allergy.

OK, that’s mean and not entirely accurate. But it’s definitely a little weird that Julio is this good and somehow isn’t a prolific TD scorer. He’s averaged 6.3 touchdowns a season over his nine-year career. The only time he hit double digits was in 2012, his second year in the league. He’s averaged 0.45 touchdowns a game for his career, so he’s worse than a 50/50 bet to get a TD in any given game.

Still, the TD deficiency is a small quibble with a player who’s averaged 6.3 catches and 96.2 receiving yards per game over nearly a decade.

It is what it is. (Ahem.) Take the receptions and yardage to the bank and hope that you get an unexpected TD bonanza as a bonus. 

5. DeAndre Hopkins, Cardinals

Some will view a WR5 ranking for Hopkins as disrespectful. Frankly, I’m worried that I have him ranked too high.

Yes, yes, Hopkins is an electric talent and a craftsman who takes his work to the level of art. He’s too good to completely bust, so you probably won’t curse yourself in December if you spend a second-round pick on Hopkins and he doesn’t meet expectations.

But I do think there’s a very good chance he fails to return a profit on a second-round pick.

Hopkins was a target monster with the Texans, averaging 159.5 targets a season since 2014 and getting at least 150 targets in five consecutive seasons. The target volume figures to come down in Arizona, where Kliff Kingsbury is going to be using a lot of multiple-WR sets that also include Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald. And let’s face it: With COVID-19 altering training camp schedules and wiping out the preseason, this isn’t an ideal year to be a wide receiver changing teams and trying to sync up with a different quarterback.

I’m not a big projections guy, but if I had to set an over/under for Hopkins’ 2020 target total, I’d put it at something like 135. He’s not going to starve with that sort of a target count (135 targets would have ranked 10th among WRs last year), but it’s going to be hard for him to make good on a Round 2 investment.

6. Kenny Golladay, Lions

This kid is the truth. For Golladay to have racked up 1,190 yards and 11 touchdowns in a season where he had to play half of his games without Matthew Stafford at quarterback is nothing short of amazing.

Things were dire enough when journeyman Jeff Driskel had to sub for Stafford in Weeks 10-12. Then Driskel hurt his hamstring, and Detroit’s QB position became a smoldering crater. With David Blough, a CFL-caliber quarterback, running the Lions’ offense for the last five games of the season, Golladay still managed to catch 36 passes for 398 yards and three TDs over that stretch. Prorated, those numbers amount to a 115-1,274-10 season … with a terrible quarterback.

And please, I don’t want to hear, “The ADP gap between Golladay and Marvin Jones shouldn’t be so big.”

Yes, it should be that big. Jones is fine; Golladay is a star. Draft him accordingly.

7. Allen Robinson, Bears

A-Rob was the one element of the Bears’ offense that worked in 2019, finishing WR11 despite the struggles of QB Mitch Trubisky (Sorry, but I refuse to call him “Mitchell” – he hasn’t earned the “ell” yet.) Robinson’s 98-1,147-7 stat line was his best since his watershed 2015 season in Jacksonville, where he had 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns.

Robinson finally played a full 16-game regular season for the first time since 2016. He only played a few snaps in the 2017 season opener before tearing his ACL, and he missed three games in 2018, his first season in Chicago.

Quarterbacking is still a problem for the Bears, but it might be slightly less of problem. The Bears signed veteran Nick Foles to compete with Trubisky, and though Foles isn’t good enough to be any sort of panacea, he at least gives the Bears a second option so they can at least go with the hot hand. (OK, make that the lukewarm hand.)

I’ve been getting Robinson a lot in drafts where I start RB-RB and want to grab a quality WR in the third round.

8. Chris Godwin, Buccaneers

A lot of the sharps were on Godwin last year, but not even the Godwin honks anticipated the sort of breakout he gave us in 2019. The third-year receiver finished WR2 despite missing the last two games of the season, ending up with 86 receptions for 1,333 yards and nine TDs.

So Godwin’s talent has been established. The QB change in Tampa is the wild card here. On one hand, comparing Tom Brady to Jameis Winston is like comparing a $300 bottle of Louis Roederer Cristal to a $5 bottle of Andre Cold Duck. But on the other hand …

Brady just turned 43. Maybe the champagne has been in the cellar a little too long? Although Brady has long favored his slot receivers, he and Godwin have none of the established chemistry that Brady and Julian Edelman had. And while Winston’s decision-making could be comically bad at time, his YOLO style translated into good WR stats.

Even though I fully buy into Godwin’s abilities, I’m not taking him in the second round, which is where his ADP has been all offseason.

9. Mike Evans, Buccaneers

Six years in the NFL, six 1,000-yard seasons. Evans’ floor is about as safe as they come. But as with Godwin, I’m a little nervous about the Buccaneers’ QB change. (And yes, I realize that being nervous about the transition from Jameis Winston from Tom Brady makes me sound like a moron.)

Evans has typically been about a half-round cheaper than Godwin, though, and I’d rather take Evans at around the 2/3 turn than Godwin in the middle of the second round.

10. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Steelers

JuJu is one of the true pivot players for 2020. It seems like the outcome of his season is going to be particularly consequential in a lot of leagues.

He was typically going early in the second round of 12-team drafts last year, and if he’s as good as we thought he was at this time a year ago, he’s going to turn a tidy profit for his investors this year at his late-third/early-fourth-round ADP.

But is he that good? The one qualm people had last year was that Smith-Schuster’s promising rookie season in 2017 and his WR8 breakout season in 2018 came when Antonio Brown was still on the Steelers, demanding attention from opponents’ top cover men. JuJu’s 2019 campaign was a bitter disappointment to all the fantasy managers who paid a heavy price for him, but Ben Roethlisberger’s elbow injury and JuJu’s foot/knee injuries were valid excuses.

Still, we don’t know whether Smith-Schuster is a true WR1. I’m still pretty optimistic about a guy who had a 1,426-yard season at age 22 and plays with the moxie of a seven-year veteran. Big Ben is healthy again (for now). And while the loquacious AB is gone, precocious youngster Dionte Johnson might be a nice complement for JuJu – good enough to keep opposing defenses from rolling safety help toward JJSS but not quite ready to push for alpha receiver status.

Not sure about you, but I’m back in on JuJu.

The post Fitz on Fantasy: 2020 Wide Receiver Rankings, 1-10 appeared first on The Football Girl.

Quarterback Rankings, 1-10

Quarterback Rankings, 11-40

Running Back Rankings, 1-10

Running Back Rankings, 11-30

For more personalized advice, be sure to check out Pat’s Patreon page where you can have direct access to Pat for your specific fantasy dilemmas.

31. Jordan Howard, Dolphins

Howard is the Phil Collins of running backs – better than he’s given credit for and someone you might feel guilty about liking.

Yes, he’s useless in the passing game, and it’s somewhat concerning that a player who derives his value solely from the running game is going to be operating behind a bad offensive line. Still, Howard was RB10 (half-point PPR) in 2016, RB12 in 2017, RB20 in 2018, and he scored seven TDs for the Eagles last year in only 10 games.

32. Tevin Coleman, 49ers

It’s probably safe to conclude that he’s never going to be a star, but Coleman is going to have a committee role in one of the NFL’s best running games. Would anyone be surprised if he finished the season with more carries and more fantasy points than Raheem Mostert?

33. Latavius Murray, Saints

In the two midseason games that Alvin Kamara sat out with injuries last year, Murray had 221 rushing yards, 86 receiving yards and four touchdowns. 

Murray offers a bit of stand-alone value in larger leagues since the Saints tend not to overwork Kamara. They also have one of the best offensive lines in the league and a high-functioning offense overall, making Murray appealing despite his backup status.

34. J.K. Dobbins, Ravens

It’s going to be hard for the rookie from Ohio State to usurp Mark Ingram’s control over the Baltimore backfield with an unconventional training camp and no preseason. But if anything were to happen to Ingram … yowza!

Maybe this ends up being sort of a redshirt year for Dobbins, but as a top-tier rookie prospect in the NFL’s best running game, the ceiling here is the Sistine Chapel.

35. Tarik Cohen, Bears

I’ve never had a good handle on Cohen’s fantasy value. When I’m in doubt about a player, I usually stay away. But I’m slowly warming up to Cohen.

At 5-6, 191 pounds, Cohen is never going to have a meaty role in a running game, but in 2018 he had 71 catches for 725 yards and five TDs, fueling an RB13 finish in half-point PPR leagues. Cohen was far less efficient in the passing game last year, but he’s acknowledged that he wasn’t in optimal condition. 

Cohen’s ceiling isn’t sky-high, but the floor is sturdy.

36. James White, Patriots

As with Tarik Cohen, White’s floor is more attractive than the ceiling. Is White’s floor as high as it used to be not that he’ll no longer be catching passes from Tom Brady, with whom White had such good rapport? It’s not as if Cam Newton has ignored his RBs in the passing game, so I’m not especially worried about a value crash for White.

37. Antonio Gibson, Washington

The cons: He was mostly a receiver at Memphis and had only 33 rushing attempts in two years, so Gibson might be developed slowly. Washington’s offense probably won’t be good, and there are a lot of RBs in the mix for touches.

The pros: Gibson is 6-0, 228 pounds, with sub 4.4 speed, nifty moves and a pass catching background. After the release of Derrius Guice, the RBs in Gibson’s way are 35-year-old Adrian Peterson and journeymen Peyton Barber and J.D. McKissick.

Watch this (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZU8dfjXf9QE) and tell me you aren’t at least a little interested in rostering Gibson.

38. Matt Breida, Dolphins

Breida is a talented run-catch threat, but he’s perpetually banged up and mysteriously fell out of favor in San Francisco last year. The range of possible outcomes is wide here.

39. Zack Moss, Bills

Shawn Siegele of RotoViz, a true connoisseur of latter-round RBs, recently noted on my podcast that Moss has a prospect profile very similar to David Montgomery – known more for power and balance than speed, and good in the passing game – but while Montgomery was typically going in the fifth round of drafts last year, Moss typically goes in the 10th round or so.

Projected usage is part of that, of course. Montgomery was the Bears’ early-down back from the jump last year, whereas Moss will share work with Devin Singletary – and QB Josh Allen is sure to call his own number quite often when the Bills are close to the goal line.

I like Singletary, but I think Siegele makes a good point: Moss is cheap for a pretty good prospect who could equal or surpass the 166 carries that Frank Gore had for Buffalo last year.

40. Adrian Peterson, Washington

He’s not winning any more rushing titles at age 35, but Peterson managed to crank out 898 rushing yards and five TDs last year, and he’s the favorite to start for Washington and get most of the early-down work following the release of Derrius Guice.

41. Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Buccaneers

Interest in Vaughn has been waning after Buccaneers head coach Bruce Arians declared Ronald Jones to be his lead RB, but Arians has head-faked us before, professing his loyalty to Andre Ellington while slow-playing an oncoming locomotive named David Johnson. 

Then again, Jones had a better college career than Vaughn, was drafted a round earlier, and is actually a few months younger than Vaughn even though Jones has already been in the league for two years. But Vaughn is still an interesting prospect who could factor into the Buccaneers’ backfield, particularly if Jones’ subpar pass-blocking threatens to de-spleen Tom Brady.

42. Alexander Mattison, Vikings

I’m usually not big on handcuffing my starting RBs before late October or so, but I suppose there’s a case to be made that it makes more sense to handcuff early in the year of COVID-19. Mattison is one of the more valuable handcuffs in the game, having shown impressive chops as a backup to Dalvin Cook in an offense that’s hell-bent on running the ball.

43. Duke Johnson, Texans

Duke has always been pigeonholed as a passing-down RB, but it’s worth remembering that he ran for 1,652 yards and 10 TDs in his last college season at Miami (Fla.) and has averaged nearly 5.0 yards per carry the last two years (albeit with the advantage that passing-down backs have of often rushing against light defensive fronts).

Point is, maybe Duke could play a bigger role in the running game if David Johnson truly is washed up, as he appeared to be at times last year. (Disclaimer: I don’t really believe he’s washed.) At the very least, Duke figure to have a significant role in the passing game for what should be an above-average offense.

44. Phillip Lindsay, Broncos

Lindsay had a 53-catch season when he was a junior at the University of Colorado, and 50-catch seasons are pretty rare for college RBs. So why has Lindsay been so ineffective in the Broncos’ passing game? He averaged 4.1 yards per target last year, which is awful.

And yet, the 5-9, 190-pound Lindsay has been surprisingly effective near the goal line, punching in 11 touchdowns in 27 carries from inside the opponent’s 10-yard line over the last two years. I think we can safely throw the small-RB stereotypes out the window here. 

There’s been some debate within the fantasy community about whether the arrival of Melvin Gordon in the offseason means an RB-by-committee in Denver. I tend to think it’ll be Gordon’s show, but at minimum Lindsay is going to be one of the league’s more valuable backup RBs.

45. Tony Pollard, Cowboys

Will Pollard get more work now that the Tammy Wynette of head coaches, Jason Garrett, will no longer be standing by his man Ezekiel Elliott? New Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy presided over some RB committees in Green Bay, but he also leaned hard on Eddie Lacy for a couple of seasons.

I think Zeke is still going to be a workhorse, but Pollard is a talented, versatile dude who averaged 5.3 yards per carry last year and was a terrific pass catcher at the University of Memphis. Pollard is a lottery ticket who’d be worth a fortune if Elliott went down.

46. Chase Edmonds, Cardinals

Edmonds went off against the Giants last year, rushing for 126 yards and three TDs in Week 7 shortly before Kenyan Drake blew into Arizona. A former fourth-round pick, Edmonds could have value in an exciting, uptempo offense, and it’s not totally out of the question that he could unseat Drake on the merits.

47. Marlon Mack, Colts

Maybe Mack would have more job security if he were a skilled pass catcher, but he’s picked up just five first downs as a receiver over the last two years while averaging 4.3 yards per target.

Mack isn’t a bad runner, but no matter what Colts head coach Frank Reich is saying in training camp, there’s not a chance in hell that Mack will be able to stave off rookie Jonathan Taylor.

48. Kerryon Johnson, Lions

A trendy asset at this time a year ago, Johnson was sentenced to committee duty when the Lions drafted stud RB prospect D’Andre Swift near the top of the second round. We’ve seen that Johnson can play, but he’s also missed 14 games over his first two NFL seasons.

49. Darrynton Evans, Titans

Evans has been one of my favorite late-round targets in early drafts. The rookie from Appalachian State should immediately slot in as the backup behind Derrick Henry, who logged a grueling 421 carries last year (playoffs included). 

Evans is a freak athlete with 4.4. speed, and he’s not tiny. He figures to have at least a small role in the offense from the jump, and he’d be golden if Henry needed to be taken into the shop for maintenance.

50. Boston Scott, Eagles

He looked pretty good when pressed into duty last year, and as of now, he’s still the No. 2 man behind Miles Sanders in Philly.

51. Darrell Henderson, Rams

Here’s a puzzler. Henderson was a stud prospect from Memphis who rushed for 1,909 yards and 22 TDs in 2018, but he couldn’t get any sort of traction in the Rams’ offense last year.

There would seem to be an opportunity for Henderson to assert himself now that Todd Gurley is gone, but the Rams spent a second-round pick on Cam Akers, who’s viewed as the favorite to start. 

It’s usually not a great idea to lean heavily on training camp reports, but I think those reports will be far more relevant in Henderson’s case than for most players.

52. Lamar Miller, Patriots

The newly signed Miller could be New England’s Week 1 starter if Sony Michel hits the PUP list. Miller is the ham sandwich of running backs – satiating but unexciting. 

53. DeAndre Washington, Chiefs

With Damien Williams opting out of the 2020 season due to COVID-19, Washington is probably the favorite to back up rookie first-round pick Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Washington had to share backup duties with Jalen Richard for most of his four seasons with the Raiders, but he’s a solid, versatile RB who had a career-high 36 catches last year. 

(Bonus: Washington was a teammate of Patrick Mahomes at Texas Tech in 2014 and 2015.)

54. Joshua Kelley, Chargers

A fourth-round pick out of UCLA, Kelley is an effervescent dude who had a solid two-year college career and tested well at the NFL Scouting Combine. He’s competing with Justin Jackson for backup work behind Austin Ekeler, and the No. 2 role with the Chargers could be fairly valuable since Ekeler isn’t built to handle a huge number of carries.

55. Sony Michel, Patriots

(Sigh)

Michel was such an exciting prospect at the University of Georgia, but injuries are draining the battery. Michel has battled knee problems, and now he’s recovering from May foot surgery and could start the season on the PUP list. He’s also now finds himself in a crowded backfield that includes James White, Lamar Miller, Damien Harris and Rex Burkhead.

56. LeSean McCoy, Buccaneers

A recent roster addition for the Bucs, McCoy could work his way into he RB mix, but the Chiefs’ marginalization of him late last year hints that Shady has become a mere wisp of the player he used to be.

57. Ito Smith, Falcons

A lot of people thought Brian Hill was going to win the Falcons’ No. 2 RB job last August, but Smith clearly outplayed Hill in training camp, and he’s the favorite to be the No. 2 behind new arrival Todd Gurley this year.

The 5-9, 195-pound Smith would never be able to handle a heavy workload if Gurley’s balky knee became a problem, but Smith was an electrifying run-catch threat at Southern Mississippi and was good on a per-touch basis in his seven healthy games with the Falcons in 2019.

58. Giovani Bernard, Bengals

It’s Joe Mixon’s show in Cincinnati, but we know that Gio is a capable, versatile backup.

59. Anthony McFarland Jr., Steelers

The speedy McFarland probably isn’t going to push James Conner for early-down work, and he might end up with fewer carries than Benny Snell, but he could become a factor on passing downs.

60. Carlos Hyde, Seahawks

He’ll never be a favorite of the analytics crowd, but Hyde was reasonably effective as an early-down thumper for the Texans last year and will now be asked to play the same role for the run-happy Seahawks, albeit as a backup to Chris Carson. Hyde may eventually fall to No. 3 when Rashaad Penny comes back from a torn ACL.

61. Nyheim Hines, Colts

Hines is probably locked in as the Colts’ passing-down back, and Philip Rivers likes to check it down to his backs. I’d be more excited if Hines had shown us more juice over his first two seasons in Indy. 

62. Jamaal Williams, Packers

Versatile but limited, Williams has had some pretty good games when injuries have forced him into a bigger role. But Aaron Jones is the clear No. 1 in Green Bay, and now second-round draft pick A.J. Dillon figures to get work, too.

63. Damien Harris, Patriots

Just when it seemed as if Harris might get his shot after what amounted to a redshirt rookie year, the Patriots signed Lamar Miller. Harris is still intriguing after a promising college career at Alabama, but he’s in a crowded backfield, and the Patriots’ offense seems to be on the way down.

64. Ryquell Armstead, Jaguars

We still have no idea whether Armstead is a legitimate NFL back, but he’s the favorite to be the No. 2 man behind Leonard Fournette, who has a history of lower leg injuries and acrimonious relations with the Jaguars.

65. A.J. Dillon, Packers

As a Packers fan, I hated the second-round selection of Dillon, who seems like a one-dimensional thumper, and not a particularly special one. I suppose he’ll have some sort of role based on the draft capital Packers GM Brian Gutekunst spent to get him. I think Gutes was having a flashback to the 1970s when he made this pick.

66. Devonta Freeman, free agent

Lamar Miller just signed, so it seems only a matter of time before Freeman finds a new home as well. He’s probably not going to find another starting gig though.

67. Justin Jackson, Chargers

I think rookie Joshua Kelley is a slight favorite to beat out Jackson for the No. 2 role behind Austin Ekeler, but I’m not sure I’m handicapping the race correctly. Jackson was a productive workhorse at Northwestern and has shown well in limited opportunities with the Chargers.

68. Lynn Bowden Jr., Raiders

Kentucky fans know how electrifying Bowden is. But there’s no way he’s unseating Josh Jacobs, and he’ll have to compete with established veteran Jalen Richard for backup touches.

69. Bennie Snell, Steelers

A slow but rugged plodder, Snell would be the favorite to start if James Conner were to get hurt.

70. Justice Hill, Ravens

Hill is an athletic freak whose closest comp on PlayerProfiler.com is Reggie Bush. But with Mark Ingram starting and J.K. Dobbins brought aboard in this year’s draft, it would take an injury to open the door even a crack for Hill.

The post Fitz on Fantasy: 2020 Running Back Rankings, 31-70 appeared first on The Football Girl.

Quarterback Rankings, 1-10

Quarterback Rankings, 11-40

Running Back Rankings, 1-10

For more personalized advice, be sure to check out Pat’s Patreon page where you can have direct access to Pat for your specific fantasy dilemmas.

11. Kenyan Drake, Cardinals

After being traded from Miami to Arizona in late October, Drake went on a tear, rolling up 824 yards and eight touchdowns over an eight-game span. He was the RB3 in fantasy points per game from Halloween on.

Does it need to be pointed out that Drake scored half of those eight touchdowns in a Week 15 game against the Browns, whose undermanned defense was circling the drain? Well, in the interest of fairness, we should also remember that in Drake’s first game in the desert, he pummeled an excellent San Francisco defense for 110 rushing yards, 52 receiving yards and a touchdown.

I’m conflicted on Drake. If he’s truly “the guy,” it could be fun to see what he’ll do over a full season in an ascendant, fast-paced offense. With Arizona likely to use a lot of three- and four-WR sets, Drake is going to be operating against a lot of light defensive fronts. 

But there are reasons to be wary. Blame Adam Gase if you must, but the fact remains that after four NFL seasons, we still haven’t seen a full RB1 season out of Drake. For me, the more vexing issue is that I like both of the backs behind Drake. Chase Edmonds has looked good in spots over his first two seasons, and I still can’t figure out how Eno Benjamin, who was so productive at Arizona State, fell into the seventh round of this year’s draft. 

I’d be willing to grab Drake as early as the first round/second round turn, but anything earlier seems like a stretch.

12. Josh Jacobs, Raiders

It was always about the eye test with this guy. Never mind that he came out of a three-man committee at Alabama. What stood out to me was the way Jacobs cut, planting his foot on the ground and stomping the accelerator. He made one particular cut in the 2019 National Championship Game against Clemson that left me completely slack-jawed. 

Yet an RB12 ranking is lower than Jacobs’ FantasyPros ADP of RB9. Jacobs caught 20 passes in 13 games last year, and it’s hard to imagine his pass-catching role expanding after the Raiders re-signed pass-catching RB Jalen Richard and drafted RB Lynn Bowden Jr., who was a wide receiver at the University of Kentucky.

Jacobs is a capable pass catcher. It just doesn’t seem as if the Raiders want to turn him into a true three-down back. And that’s fine – three down backs are a rare breed, and Jacobs still has a path to RB1 value even if the Raiders aren’t willing to let him go full McCaffrey.

And by the way, the Raiders return all five starters on an offensive line that ranked sixth in Football Outsiders’ run-blocking metric, adjusted line yards. 

13. Aaron Jones, Packers

Earlier in the offseason, I had Jones ranked as high as RB9, but I’m getting cold feet. It’s not a matter of talent; the kid is terrific. We know he’s not going to score 19 touchdowns again, but the inevitable TD regression would be baked into his price even at RB9.

No, what worries me is that Packers head coach Matt LaFleur seems hell-bent on using a three-man committee. At the NFL Scouting Combine, LaFleur told my buddy Alex Dunlap of RosterWatch that the Packers were looking to add another back in the draft, and sure enough,  Packers GM Brian Gutekunst reached for one-dimensional grinder A.J. Dillon in the second round. Green Bay also has Jamaal Williams, a true jack of all trades, master of none.

Jones is the best of this group by far, but I fear his workload won’t reflect it. Some of Jones’ best rushing performances last season came in games where Williams was hurt, and some of Jones’ best receiving performances came in games where Davante Adams was hurt.

As good as Jones is, I think it would be a mistake to take him in the first round, because his usage is bound to disappoint investors.

14. Austin Ekeler, Chargers

Have you seen what Ekeler looks like these days? Holy hell is this dude buff! Good thing, because he might have to put the Chargers’ offense on his back.

When Melvin Gordon held out early last season, Ekeler was RB2 in fantasy scoring over the four games Gordon missed, averaging 23.8 points per game. Gordon has left for Denver, so we should be excited about Ekeler, right?

Well, sort of.

Even with his swollen physique, the 5-foot-9 Ekeler isn’t really built to be a heavy-duty back. During Gordon’s holdout, Ekeler averaged 14 carries a game, so the Chargers weren’t exactly wearing him out. With the damage Ekeler can do as a pass catcher, 14 carries a game could make him a top-five RB. But I suspect he’s going to be used as more of a satellite RB plus, sharing the rushing duties with Justin Jackson and rookie Josh Kelley.

Alas, the Chargers’ QB situation could be problematic for Ekeler’s fantasy value. Philip Rivers has always thrown to his RBs quite a bit, but Rivers is in Indianapolis now. Veteran Tyrod Taylor supported some decent pass-catching seasons for LeSean McCoy in Buffalo, but Taylor hasn’t thrown to his backs the way Rivers has. At some point the Chargers will probably swap out Taylor for rookie Justin Herbert, the No. 6 pick in this year’s draft, and it’s hard to imagine a rookie quarterback having a positive effect on Ekeler’s fantasy value. 

I’m kind of expecting this offense to stink out loud because of the QB situation. It’s hard to imagine Ekeler matching last year’s 11 touchdowns, especially since eight of them were TD catches. And if crappy QB play short-circuits a lot of drives, it will mean fewer snaps and fewer touches for Ekeler. I love the player but don’t care for the situation.

15. Jonathan Taylor, Colts

Full disclosure: I’m a Wisconsin grad and have watched all but a handful of Taylor’s 926 college carries, so I’m not exactly unbiased.

With that disclaimer out of the way, I urge you to get Taylor on your fantasy team(s) this year.

Taylor is the best RB prospect since Saquon Barkley. At 5-10 and a chiseled 226 pounds, he has the perfect frame for heavy-duty work. His sub-4.4 speed at that weight gives him a 98th percentile size-adjusted speed score, according to PlayerProfiler.com.

But it’s not all about size and raw athleticism. Taylor has good vision, he knows how to be patient to set up his blocks when he needs to be, and he has the footwork of Fred Astaire.

In three seasons at Wisconsin, Taylor ran for 6,174 yards and 50 TDs. The only time he fell short of 2,000 rushing yards was his freshman year, when he finished with 1,977.

Granted, Taylor isn’t an accomplished pass catcher, but that doesn’t mean it’s a weakness. He was barely targeted in the passing game his first years in Madison. Before his junior year, he asked his coaches to get him more involved in the passing game, knowing NFL teams would want to see it on tape. They obliged, and Taylor had 26 catches for 252 yards and five touchdowns.

The Colts traded up in this year’s draft to grab Taylor with the ninth pick of the second round. He’ll get to operate behind arguably the best offensive line in the league, and the Colts figure to go run-heavy to protect their immobile, geriatric quarterback, Philip Rivers. Other people seem to be more worried about Taylor unseating Marlon Mack as the starter than I am. (I’ll be surprised if it doesn’t happen by Week 2. If not sooner.)

No, Taylor won’t be the third-down back in Indianapolis. That role belongs to Nyheim Hines. But Taylor wasn’t the Badgers’ third-down back either, and he still averaged 23.6 touches a game over three seasons.

Here’s the best part: Taylor’s FantasyPros Expert Consensus Ranking is RB22, and his ADP is RB23. That’s a great price for a phenomenal RB prospect who landed in a terrific situation.

16. Melvin Gordon, Broncos

After coming back from a four-game holdout, Gordon was the RB13 from Week 5 on despite sharing a backfield with Austin Ekeler. In 2018, Gordon missed four games but still finished RB7, averaging 20.9 fantasy points per week. In 2017, Gordon finished RB5.

For a while, there was a preposterous notion in some circles of the fantasy community that Gordon wasn’t actually good because he averaged under 4.0 yards per carry in each of his first three years. Granted, Gordon couldn’t quite light the firewood in his 2015 rookie season, somehow failing to score a single touchdown, but he’s been a prolific TD scorer ever since. He’s also an adept pass catcher, averaging 47.8 receptions over his last four seasons.

Surprisingly, Phillip Lindsay hasn’t been very useful in the passing game, which is one reason the Broncos brought in Gordon. Maybe Gordon won’t be a true workhorse in Denver, but Lindsay probably poses less of a threat to Gordon’s fantasy value than Ekeler did with the Chargers, and Gordon was a valuable fantasy asset even with Ekeler around.

17. Chris Carson, Seahawks

Carson fractured his hip late last season, but he didn’t need surgery and is reportedly fine. Rashaad Penny tore his ACL last year and is said to be having a difficult recovery. Penny is likely to land on the PUP list and miss at least the first six games of the season. The Seahawks signed Carlos Hyde in the offseason, but even Hyde has acknowledged that the Seattle running game is Carson’s show.

The Seahawks’ offense ranked first in percentage of running plays in 2018 and sixth last year. No one has told Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer that they have one of the best quarterbacks in the league, so they relentlessly pound away on the ground, and Carson has been their weapon of choice for the last two years.

Barring injury, Carson is a pretty good bet to return RB2 value.

18. Le’Veon Bell, Jets

The Pittsburgh salad days are behind the 28-year-old Bell, but maybe that’s a good thing, since Pittsburghers have been known to put french fries on their salads.

After a yearlong holdout in 2018, Bell made his Jets debut in 2019 and had the worst season of his career, averaging 3.2 yards a carry and scoring four TDs. The Jets’ offensive line was terrible, and for a running back accustomed to patiently waiting for creases to materialize, crappy blocking was a major hindrance.

The Jets have tried to improve the offensive line. They spent a first-round draft pick on massive OT Mekhi Becton, which should help the run blocking. They also signed Greg Van Roten and George Fant, though neither is especially good. PFF ranks this unit 27th in the league going into 2020.

Fantasy managers hate Adam Gase and seem to automatically downgrade all Jets because of him. I’m no Gase fanboy, but I’m not downgrading Bell because of coaching, even though Gase has done some annoying chirping about wanting to work other running backs into the mix.

I’m not sure if Bell has another great season in him, or if the Jets’ oxygen-deprived ecosystem can support one, but I can get on board with a talented RB who’s a good pass catcher and can be rostered at an affordable price.

19. Todd Gurley, Falcons

Perhaps the biggest error we commit with player evaluation is overemphasizing a player’s situation. A lot of people have fallen head over heels in love with Gurley’s new situation in Atlanta, but I think a cautious approach is the prudent course of action here.

Gurley was undeniably great at the University of Georgia and with the Rams in 2017 and 2018. He wasn’t great last year, averaging 3.8 yards per carry and a meager 4.2 yards per target as a receiver.

The Rams’ offensive line wasn’t a big help, but it ranked 19th in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards metric, so it’s not as if lousy blocking was entirely to blame for Gurley’s lack of spark. In fact, the Rams fared better in adjusted line yards last year than Gurley’s new team, the Falcons, who ranked 24th. The perception is that the Falcons have the much better offensive line. That might be true, but it might not be a night-and-day difference for Gurley.

Still, the overall situation does appear to be an upgrade. Atlanta’s passing game is terrific, which should help keep opposing fronts light and help buoy Gurley’s TD potential. The backups are Ito Smith, Brian Hill and Qadree Ollison, so no one is going to poach carries from Gurley on the merits. 

The big worry is that Gurley’s creaky left knee isn’t something a little WD-40 can fix. Gurley tore his ACL in 2014 and has arthritis in the knee. Teams were said to be concerned about the condition of Gurley’s knee before he was drafted, and an NFL source told Jeff Schultz of The Athletic earlier this year that the knee is “very bad.”

My friend Edwin Porras, a doctor of physical therapy and a medical analyst for FantasyPoints.com, tells me the condition is permanent and will worsen over time. He says people with osteoarthritis have good days and bad days. Porras says Gurley could conceivably be fine in the week leading up to a game and then suddenly be unable to play on Sunday. 

To me, the risk of a balky knee outweighs the perceived appeal of Gurley’s new situation in Atlanta.

20. James Conner, Steelers

Pittsburgh has been beefing up its RB stable over the last couple of years – Jaylen Samuels, Benny Snell, Anthony McFarland Jr. – but Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin insists he’s a one-RB kind of guy. I’m inclined to believe him, but his preferred back, Conner, has had trouble staying healthy. 

I’m just sort of lukewarm on Conner as a fantasy asset. His role is obviously valuable, but his durability is a concern, and I’m not quite as sold on Conner’s talent as other seem to be.

21. Mark Ingram II, Ravens

Before we get to Mark Ingram the Second, let me use this opportunity to mention that Mark Ingram the First had one of the greatest individual efforts in Super Bowl history to convert a third down by inches on this play. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vgWfLZgr-YA

As for Mark Ingram II …

Before COVID-19, I was worried about rookie J.K. Dobbins cutting into Ingram’s role. But now, with a weird, less immersive training camp and no preseason games, it’s going to be tougher for Dobbins to get a foothold in this offense.

Ingram isn’t going to repeat last year’s 15 touchdowns, but at a relatively affordable cost, he really doesn’t need to in order to return a profit. Ingram is a good fit for a Lamar Jackson-triggered offense, and as competitive as Ingram is, I’m not especially worried that he’s now on the wrong side of 30.

22. David Johnson, Texans

Has anyone torpedoed more fantasy draft capital than Johnson has over the last three years? The good news is that we no longer have to pay a steep price to chase the glory of Johnson’s magnificent 2016 season, in which he totaled 2,118 yards from scrimmage and 20 touchdowns. But is he still good at this point?

Johnson has averaged 3.6 yards per carry over the past two seasons, but the Cardinals’ offensive line was subpar. He’s always been a fine pass catcher, and he’ll be playing in a fairly good offense in Houston, even if the offensive line won’t be much of an upgrade for him.

The cost isn’t unreasonable, but I’m generally not pursuing any running backs in the RB17-RB24 range with the exception of Jonathan Taylor (whom I consider to be a top-15 back but always seems to fall into that mid- to low-end RB2 range in drafts).

23. Leonard Fournette, Jaguars

I won’t draft Fournette in any league this year. Fantasy owners are drawn to him because of his usage – he had 341 touches last year and remains the undisputed No. 1 RB in Jacksonville – but there are a LOT of red flags here.

Fournette scored only three touchdowns last year, so he’s due for some better luck in that category, but how much TD upside is there when the Jaguars are expected to be one of the worst teams in the league? Nearly 20% of Fournette’s 2019 rushing yardage came in a 225-yard outburst against Denver. 

 Fournette was targeted 100 times and caught 76 passes last year. He won’t be used as much in the passing game this year now that the Jaguars have added third-down RB Chris Thompson. Fournette has had a rocky relationship with the organization, and even though none of the other RBs on the roster would seem to pose an imminent threat to Fournette’s role, it doesn’t seem as if Fournette is long for Jacksonville, so the Jags might hold an open audition for the lead-RB role once their playoff hopes are gone. 

I’m out.

24. David Montgomery, Bears

Montgomery was a tackle-breaker extraordinaire at Iowa State, but that skill didn’t carry over into his rookie year, and his pedestrian speed was an obvious hindrance. Montgomery didn’t see enough action in the passing game to significantly boost his fantasy value.

The Bears didn’t make any notable additions at running back in the offseason. Tarik Cohen is still around, but he’s a pint-sized satellite back and doesn’t figure to cut into Montgomery’s early down work.

I think Montgomery is better than he showed as a rookie, but maybe not that much better, so even though his meaty role is attractive, I haven’t been taking him in early drafts.

25. D’Andre Swift, Lions

Before the NFL Draft, I had Swift ranked No. 2 in this year’s rookie RB class behind only Jonathan Taylor. Thing is, no one other than Lions fans was excited about Swift landing in Detroit, where he seems destined to share work with Kerryon Johnson.

There aren’t that many true workhorses in the NFL these days, and it’s possible for Swift to be a guy you want in your fantasy lineup every week even if he’s sharing work. This kid makes some killer cuts, he seems to have NFL-caliber run vision, he’s a good pass catcher, and he packs surprising punch for a 5-9, 215-pound back.

The unappealing landing spot has kept Swift’s price down, and I’ve been increasing my stake in him in recent best-ball drafts.

26. Cam Akers, Rams

A lot of people in the fantasy community are excited about Akers, who overcame a lousy supporting cast at Florida State to compile 2,875 rushing yards and 34 TDs in three seasons with the ’Noles. I do wonder, though, if the fantasy community tends to overestimate college RB prospects who were hindered by bad offensive lines in college. (Kenneth Dixon of Louisiana Tech immediately comes to mind.)

The Rams spent a second-round pick on Akers, so clearly they’re excited about him. But they also spend a third-round pick on Darrell Henderson last year, and even though Henderson wasn’t able to get any traction in the offense last year, he was a pretty exciting prospect coming out of Memphis. Malcom Brown is still around, too.

Maybe Akers runs away with this backfield, but I’m not entirely convinced that’s how it’s going to shake out, and there’s always someone in every draft who’s more excited about Akers than I am.

27. Devin Singletary, Bills

Singletary was impressive for the Bills down the stretch last year, rushing for 75 yards or more in five of his last eight games and averaging 5.1 yards per carry. He really passed the eye test for me – Singletary has some serious wiggle, even if he doesn’t have exceptional straight-line speed.

But Singletary had only three carries inside the opponent’s 10-yard line last year, and he ran for just two TDs. Bills QB Josh Allen likes to call his own number when the Bills get close to the goal line, and Buffalo drafted thumper Zach Moss to do some of the grunt work between the tackles. There might not be much TD upside for Singletary.

I like the player more than the situation; Singletary’s price is still just a bit too steep for me to be interested.

28. Kareem Hunt, Browns

Hunt is good enough to be starting somewhere, but not in Cleveland, where he’s stuck behind stud Nick Chubb. The passing-game role that the Browns have carved out for Hunt gives him some stand-alone value, and he’d be a valuable lottery ticket if anything happened to Chubb.

29. Ronald Jones, Buccaneers

Buccaneers head coach Bruce Arians says Ronald Jones is his lead RB, even though the Bucs spent a third-round pick on promising prospect Ke’Shawn Vaughn and signed LeSean McCoy. 

We can probably write off the possibility of McCoy becoming the lead guy. He wasn’t awful in Kansas City last year, but he’s clearly not the player he once was, and the Chiefs completely marginalized him down the stretch for the most important games of their title run.

RoJo has a better résumé than Vaughn. Jones had a better college career, broke out at a younger age, was drafted in an earlier round and has already played two NFL seasons, even though he’s actually a few months younger than Vaughn. Jones was pretty good last season, so we should probably give him a mulligan for his severely disappointing rookie year.

I’ve warmed up to Jones in recent weeks after initially being spooked by the addition of Vaughn. The one think that still makes me nervous about RoJo is that he’s lousy in pass protection. I think pass blocking is a grossly overrated component of a running back’s game that fantasy managers would probably be better off ignoring entirely, but it’s probably more important here than in other cases since the Buccaneers have 43-year-old Tom Brady at quarterback.

Still, I think Jones is probably the guy to own in the Tampa Bay backfield, and the price is right in most drafts.

30. Raheem Mostert, 49ers

Mostert put up big numbers in December and January — 715 yards and 12 touchdowns in his last eight games, playoffs included — but the overall profile says, “Stay away.”

He’s 28, he doesn’t catch many passes, he was basically a nonfactor on offense in four college seasons at Purdue and in his first four NFL seasons, and he’s destined to share work with Tevin Coleman, Jerick McKinnon and perhaps others. Another possible red flag is that Mostert has reportedly added weight after playing at 205 pounds last year. If he loses quickness, the profile will be even less appealing.

I’m not at all interested in rostering Mostert this year.

The post Fitz on Fantasy: 2020 Running Back Rankings, 11-30 appeared first on The Football Girl.

Be sure to check out Pat’s previously published positional rankings:

Top 10 Quarterbacks

And now the remaining quarterbacks, ranked as follows:

11. Matthew Stafford, Lions

Stafford ranked QB6 in fantasy points per game through the first nine weeks of 2019, then missed the last half of the season with a back injury that isn’t considered a long-term issue.

There was concern going into last season that the Lions might be run-heavy under offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell, potentially hindering Stafford’s fantasy value. During Bevell’s seven years as the OC in Seattle, the Seahawks’ offense twice had the highest percentage of running plays in the league and finished two other seasons in the top four.

Last spring, Bevell told the Detroit Free Press that “we’ll always be about running the football,” but he also said: “We want to be explosive in the passing game. When we throw the ball, we want to be able to throw it down the field and get big plays.”

Bevell was good on his word. Stafford’s average depth of target was 11.4 yards, according to Pro Football Focus – tops among all QBs with at least eight starts. Stafford averaged 8.6 yards per attempt, second only to Ryan Tannehill.

Stafford has a terrific WR duo in Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones, T.J. Hockenson has breakout potential at TE, and rookie RB D’Andre Swift does some of his best work as a pass catcher. 

I really like Stafford as a mid-level QB buy for 2020.

12. Drew Brees, Saints

It’s 2 a.m. and they’re still lined up three-deep at the keg, but eventually the tapper will start to sputter and hiss, and minutes later the party will be over.

Is it ageist to point out that Brees is 41? Drafters know this, of course, but with Brees still performing at a high level, they’ve been willing to overlook it. Brees has an ADP of QB9 and an Expert Consensus ranking of QB10, according to FantasyPros. 

A thumb injury cost Brees five games last year, but he posted a passer rating of 116.3, the best of his career and the second-best in the league behind only Ryan Tannehill. Brees has completed at least 72% of his passes in three straight seasons. He threw 27 TD passes against only four interceptions last year, with a career-best TD percentage of 7.1%.

So everything is peachy, right? Well …

There’s been a discernible loss of arm strength, and of course seems nitpicky when Brees’ efficiency has been off the charts. But Brees’ average depth of target last year was 6.9 yards, which ranked 32nd among QBs with at least eight starts. Without a vertical dimension to his game, Brees has to be uber-efficient to return a profit. 

The crazy yardage numbers probably aren’t coming back. Brees averaged better than 300 passing yards a game in six consecutive seasons from 2011 to 2016, averaging 5,141 yards per season over that stretch. But over the last three seasons his yardage averages per game have been 270.9, 266.1 and 270.8. Not bad at all, but the circus numbers of yore are probably gone for good, and betting on a repeat of a 7.1% TD rate is folly. 

The infrastructure in New Orleans is still very Brees-friendly. Michael Thomas is the best receiver in the league, Alvin Kamara is sublime as a pass-catching RB, Emmanuel Sanders came aboard in free agency, the offensive line is among the best in the league, and Sean Payton remains one of the games top offensive architects.

But 41 is a scary number, and I’m not anxious to bet on Brees dinking-and-dunking his way to a QB1 season (even though I have him ranked just inside the QB1 cut line).

13. Tom Brady, Patriots

And speaking of age …

Here’s a literary spoiler that I feel entitled to drop after waiting 130 years: Things don’t end well for Dorian Gray. If at any point Brady starts muttering about the self-portrait in his study and goes for a knife, it’s probably time to hit the waiver wire.

Brady turns 43 on Aug. 3. I wrote about the Tom Brady age dilemma in March and noted that since the AFL-NFL merger, only four QBs have played at age 43 or older in the post-merger era: Steve DeBerg, Doug Flutie, Warren Moon and Vinny Testaverde. In 2007, Testaverde made six starts and seven appearances for the Panthers at age 44. He completed 54.7% of his throws, had five TD passes and six interceptions, and the Panthers went 2-4 in his starts. None of the other three QBs attempted more than 59 passes in their old-age seasons.

The difference, of course, is that none of those guys are in the conversation for best QB of all time. But we have seen a couple of undeniably great quarterbacks abruptly tumble over the age cliff. 

In 2019, Brett Favre threw for 4,202 yards and 33 touchdowns, finished QB3 in fantasy scoring and nearly led the Vikings to the Super Bowl. The next year he averaged 193 passing yards a game, threw 11 TD passes and 19 interceptions, went 5-8 and took his cue to retire.

In 2014, 38-year-old Peyton Manning threw for 4,727 yards and 39 touchdowns, finished QB4 in fantasy scoring and led the Broncos to a 12-4 record. The next year, he averaged 224.9 yards a game, threw 9 TD passes and 17 interceptions, missed six games with a foot injury and … somehow quarterbacked the Broncos to a championship despite three mediocre playoff performances. (Insert shrug emoji here.)

Brady said goodbye to New England in the offseason and landed in Tampa, where Mike Evans and Chris Godwin will give him the best WR tandem he’s had since Randy Moss and Wes Welker a decade ago. Brady’s pairing with Buccaneers head coach Bruce Arians is pretty intriguing, too. 

Brady’s ADP and ECR are both QB11. I can’t be quite that enthusiastic about a QB who’s being scouted by the AARP. But as with Brees, Brady is in a terrific situation, and I don’t think it’s preposterous to draft him at current cost. Just be ready to hit the eject button if things start to take a Manningesque turn.

14. Jared Goff, Rams

Perceptions drive fantasy markets, and poor Goff is like a lovelorn Pepe Le Pew, trailed by the stink of his performance in Super Bowl LIII.

In his three full seasons as a starter, Goff has finished QB14, QB8 and QB16. His ECR and ADP are both at QB19. 

Goff is coming off a weird year. He was so-so (QB17) over the first eight games of the season. Then he had a brutal three-game slump against the Steelers, Bears and Ravens, with zero TD passes and five interceptions over that span. But Goff caught fire in December, averaging 328.6 passing yards over his last five regular-season starts, with 11 TD passes.

Sean McVay’s system works. The Rams have been a top-10 team in passing yardage in each of the last three years, with top-five finishes in 2018 and 2019. Goff has a good group of pass catchers. Rams RBs accounted for an absurdly low 9.7% of team targets last year, and a dead-cat bounce in that category would give Goff a few more easy completions. 

At such a deep discount, I think Goff is a buy this year.

15. Daniel Jones, Giants

How could Jones have fumbled 18 times last year? Does he have a problem with hyperhidrosis? Do his pregame meals include onion rings?

Jones’ 18 fumbles easily led the league and tied him for fifth on the dubious list of all-time single-season fumble leaders behind only Kerry Collins and Daunte Culpepper (23), Tony Banks and David Carr (21). And mind you, Jones played 13 games and made only 12 starts.

The 11 lost fumbles and 12 interceptions that Jones was responsible for last year didn’t mean much to the Giants, whose season was a lost cause anyway. After the selection of Jones with the sixth overall pick in last year’s draft was widely panned, GM Dave Gettleman had to feel vindicated after Jones threw 24 TD passes and displayed a decent grasp of the offense.

The turnovers don’t mean that much to fantasy managers either. Oh sure, interceptions and fumbles are penalized in a lot of leagues, but QB turnovers tend not to be especially sticky year over year. Jones was competent as a passer in 2019 and added value with his legs, running for 279 yards and two TDs. The 6-5 Jones doesn’t look like a scrambler, but he’s more nimble than he appears and ran for 17 touchdowns in three years at Duke.

Jones’ efficiency as a rookie passer wasn’t stellar. He completed 61.9% of his throws and averaged 6.6 yards per attempt – numbers that put him well outside the top 20 in both categories. But a lot of his pass catchers missed time with injuries, his offensive line didn’t do a very good job of protecting him, and, well, he was a rookie. 

If the supporting cast – Saquon Barkley, Evan Engram, Sterling Shepard, Golden Tate and Darius Slayton – can stay healthy, if fourth overall draft pick Andrew Thomas helps patch the offensive line, and if the Konami Code is once again punched in, Jones could be a top-10 quarterback.

16. Cam Newton, Patriots

This is where I’m ranking Cam for conventional single-QB leagues with 10 or 12 teams. For 2QB and superflex leagues, I’ll drop him 2-3 spots.

As my friend Scott Pianowski of Yahoo says, in a single-QB league, if you miss on a quarterback, there’s another bus coming in 10 minutes. There’s little disincentive to take a swing on a boom-or-bust QB. Not so with 2QB and superflex leagues, where there’s greater emphasis on the position and a bad miss on a QB can earn you a trip to the woodshed.

It’s hard to predict how things will go for Cam in New England, especially since stylistically he’s the anti-Brady. Maybe things will go swimmingly. Bill Belichick is the NFL’s Rumpelstiltskin, so often spinning straw into gold – and Newton is some pretty high-grade straw.

But Newton is 31 now. He’s always derived much of his fantasy value from his running ability. Will he still be able to use that business model after his body has been through the wringer?

Cam is one of the tougher calls at the QB position. Go to the expert rankings at FantasyPros.com and click on Cam’s name; you’ll see that the analysts are all over the map on him. I’m erring on the side of caution. 

17. Baker Mayfield, Browns

Scott Barrett of FantasyPoints.com has noted that Mayfield had the toughest strength of schedule among all QBs last year. Mayfield never looked particularly comfortable in the Freddie Kitchens/Todd Monken offense either, and it didn’t help that WR Odell Beckham Jr. was playing hurt all year.

New head coach Kevin Stefanski likes to use the running game, and with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt as his RBs, he certainly has the ammo to go run-heavy. That probably means Mayfield won’t finish in the top 10 or 15 in passing attempts, but it might do wonders for his efficiency, à la 2019 Ryan Tannehill.

FantasyPros.com lists Mayfield’s ADP at QB14, which seems rich. I suspect there will be drafts where he goes closer to QB20, at which point I think he offers some value.

I do wish Mayfield would spend less time on petty grievances with the likes of Hue Jackson and Colin Cowherd. Not that we need to pay attention to the tabloid stuff for fantasy, but it would be easier to envision Mayfield as an upper-tier quarterback if he weren’t so willing to engage in lowbrow feuds.

18. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers

Let’s take a leap of faith and assume Roethlisberger is in better physical condition now than he was in last December, when he cast a Sasquatchian shadow on the sideline while recovering from an elbow injury that caused him to miss 14 games. Roethlisberger had grown a woolly Kris Kringle beard, and it looked as if he’d stopped for milk and cookies at every household in Pittsburgh.

Roethlisberger is 38 now, and he’s been knocked around so much in his career that injuries now have to be part of the calculus when assessing his value. But he’s been playing at a reasonably high level in his twilight years, and he had an exciting young group of wide receivers. 

It’s often a mistake to make assumptions about the types of game scripts players will face over the coming season, since the things that we see in 4D in our crystal balls often prove much more opaque in real life. Still, the Steelers appear to have one of the best defenses in the league, so it’s hard to envision Big Ben in a lot of shootouts. He had a league-high 675 pass attempts in 2018. I’d be surprised if Roethlisberger threw 575 passes this year even if he were to stay intact for 16 games.

19. Sam Darnold, Jets

There’s widespread disdain for Jets head coach Adam Gase. Fantasy managers are convinced that Gase has a deleterious effect on fantasy value, and he’s a graduate of the Barry Bonds School of Charm.

But it’s clear that the animus toward Gase has gone overboard when Drew Lock is being drafted ahead of Sam Darnold. Lock’s ADP is QB24. Darnold’s is QB25.

Over the last eight weeks of the regular season, Darnold was QB10 in total fantasy points and QB16 in points per game. Lest you think he ran into a favorable stretch of schedule, he finished the season with games against the Ravens, Steelers and Bills.

Darnold missed three games with mononucleosis early in the season and was probably still feeling the aftereffects upon his return, so I’m inclined to give him a mulligan for the first half of the season.

Darnold was a much better college prospect than Lock, and he’s made 26 NFL starts while Lock has made five. 

Don’t let your contempt for Adam Gase blind you to Darnold’s potential. This seems like an opportune time to take a discount on an ascendant 23-year-old quarterback.

20. Ryan Tannehill, Titans

Tannehill was more efficient than an LED bulb last season, completing 70.3% of his throws, averaging a league-best 9.6 yards per attempt and posting a TD rate of 7.7%.

He’s destined to fall short of all those marks in 2020, and probably well short. We should still expect Tannehill to be efficient because he’s playing in a conservative, run-heavy offense – just not as efficient as last year.

On the other hand, Tannehill averaged a paltry 27 passing attempts in his 10 starts. Even if the Titans try to go ground-and-pound with Derrick Henry all season, the smart money says Tannehill’s passing volume goes up this year. That should offset some of the inevitable drop in efficiency.

Tannehill adds some value with his legs, though it’s worth noting that last year’s four TD runs represent 40% of his rushing touchdowns over a seven-year career.

Tannehill isn’t a terrible fantasy option. He just has to walk a narrow path to return value.

21. Kirk Cousins, Vikings

“You like that!” (If by “that,” you mean a boringly efficient QB2 type, then yes.)

During his two years in Minnesota, Cousins has finished QB13 and QB18 in fantasy scoring despite completing 69.7% of his throws and averaging a respectable 7.5 yards per attempt.

Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer has a fondness for the running game, and the Vikings are further incentivized to be run-heavy now that stud WR Stefon Diggs has shuffled off to Buffalo. 

High ceiling, low floor.

22. Jimmy Garoppolo, 49ers

Well hello there, handsome. If only Jimmy G’s numbers were as good-looking as he is.

Garoppolo finished QB22 in fantasy points per game last year, and it’s hard to envision much better for 2020 when Kyle Shanahan’s system and the 49ers’ loaded defense suggest that San Francisco will again be one of the run-heaviest teams in the league. (The 49ers and Ravens were the only teams to throw more than they passed last year.)

I think Garoppolo is a quality NFL starter, but his fantasy upside is pretty limited. 

23. Joe Burrow, Bengals

This is a conservative ranking for a talented young passer. Burrow’s FantasyPros.com ECR is QB20, and his ADP is QB18.

The enthusiasm is understandable after Burrow had arguably the best season by a college quarterback of all time – 5,671 passing yards, 60 TD passes, five TD runs. He’ll also get to work with a good group of receivers in Cincinnati that includes Tyler Boyd, A.J. Green, John Ross and Tee Higgins.

But the jump from college to the NFL has befuddled many a good young quarterback. The jump is even more daunting this year, with training camp destined to be a less immersive experience than usual because of COVID-19, and with the preseason canceled entirely.

I recommend caution here.

24. Philip Rivers, Colts

Rivers’ interception total spiked and his TD rate plummeted last season, but his numbers in other categories – yardage, completion percentage, YPA – were in line with his career norms. 

I don’t think the 38-year-old is washed yet, and it may do him good to play behind one of the NFL’s best offensive lines after years of playing behind the Chargers’ five-man sieve.

25. Teddy Bridgewater, Panthers

Bridgewater is considered a possible QB sleeper in some circles. The biggest draws are his weaponry – Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore at al. – and the promise of negative game scripts thanks to the Panthers’ cheesecloth defense. Bridgewater advocates are also encouraged by the solid relief stint he turned in for the Saints last year while Drew Brees was recovering from a broken thumb.

Meh. 

I mean, sure, if the Carolina defense is so godawful that it leads to 600-plus pass attempts for Teddy, I suppose I’ll regret not ranking him higher. But he’s always struck me as just a game manager. He could game-manage his way to a high-end QB2 season, perhaps, but expecting anything more seems like wishful thinking from the Teddy Ruxspinners.

26. Drew Lock, Broncos

It’s dangerous to use the quality of a team’s pass catchers to justify enthusiasm for a quarterback who doesn’t have much of a track record. 

Indeed, there’s some exciting young pass-catching talent in Denver – Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, K.J. Hamler, Noah Fant, Albert Okwuegbunam – but Lock has only five games of NFL experience and wasn’t exactly a pristine prospect coming out of Missouri. I actually liked him as a prospect more than most, and his rookie performance was encouraging, but I’m not inclined to place many bets on Lock this season.

27. Gardner Minshew, Jaguars

Great kid, great story. But this is another case where, as with Teddy Bridgewater, some people are a little too eager to invest based mostly on the promise of negative game scripts.

The Jaguars are going to stink out loud this year. Vegas has set their win total at five, which almost seems overly generous. I think most Jags fans would be pleased to see Minshew start 16 games this year and then serve as a backup to Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields in 2021.

Minshew was OK last year, but the sixth-round draft pick out of Washington State probably doesn’t have a lot of room for improvement. 

28. Derek Carr, Raiders

Carr is coming off his best NFL season. He ranked ninth in the league in passer rating and posted career bests in nearly every statistical category. Yet a lot of people think he’s going to be replaced by Marcus Mariota at some point this season.

Hard to tell if the improvement sticks for Carr. Hard to tell if Mariota really poses a threat to his job security. The good news: You’ll only have to ponder these questions if you play in a two-QB league.

29. Dwayne Haskins, Washington

He was terrible in his first few games of NFL action, then started to look more comfortable in his last few games. I’m cautiously optimistic about Haskins’ future, but Washington doesn’t have enough pass-catching talent to drag him to fantasy relevance this year.

30. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Dolphins

The ultimate YOLO quarterback, FitzMagic offers sneaky upside as a daring downfield thrower capable of delivering big numbers in any given week. But he’s a risky play in leagues that heavily penalize interceptions, and he’s obviously just keeping the seat warm for Tua Tagavailoa – though for how long, no one outside Dolphins headquarters really knows. 

31. Nick Foles, Bears

Most Bears observers think Foles has the inside track to start ahead of the heretofore disappointing Mitch Trubisky. Even if Foles starts, he’ll be little more than an occasional streaming option in single-QB leagues.

32. Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins

My buddy Thor Nystrom of Rotoworld, an astute college football analyst, loves Tua and believes he has Steve Young type upside. But Tua has a fraught injury history, and since the Dolphins aren’t competing for anything this year, they might handle him with kid gloves.

33. Justin Herbert, Chargers

Herbert is a mixed bag as a prospect, but he’s got a big arm and can run. The latter attribute is his best hope for rookie fantasy relevance.

34. Tyrod Taylor, Chargers

A lot of people in the fantasy realm still love “TyGod” for his three-year stretch of inexpensive fantasy value from 2015 to 2017. But 2015 was really the only year in that stretch when he was a good quarterback, and he was terrible when we last saw him with the Browns in 2018. It won’t be long before the Chargers park Taylor on the bench and launch the Justin Herbert era. 

35. Mitch Trubisky, Bears

The poor kid may forever be a laughingstock due to the poor decision-making of Bears GM Ryan Pace. But it’s too early to give up on Mitch. I don’t know if he has the moxie to ever be a great passer, but he’s young enough to improve, and the kid can really run.

36. Jarrett Stidham, Patriots

There’s a small but non-zero chance that the Patriots release Cam Newton and go with Stidham as the starter after all.

37. Jameis Winston, Saints

It would be fascinating to watch Winston run Sean Payton’s offense – not necessary exhilarating, but definitely fascinating.

38. Marcus Mariota, Raiders

Mariota might get a shot in Vegas. How many chips are you willing to bet that he’s magically developed pocket awareness during the pandemic?

39. Andy Dalton, Cowboys

As maligned as he may have been in Cincinnati, the Red Rifle doesn’t suck, and he’d have weapons galore in Dallas if Dak Prescott were to go down.

40. Jalen Hurts, Eagles

There’s some major Konami Code potential here, and Carson Wentz has been knocked out of action before.

The post Fitz on Fantasy: 2020 Quarterback Rankings, 11-40 appeared first on The Football Girl.

QUARTERBACKS

1. Lamar Jackson, Ravens

A lot of sharp people zeroed in on Jackson last summer because it was easy to envision a hefty return on a modest price. His 2019 ADP was QB12, according to FantasyData.com, and he was typically going in the seventh or eighth rounds of drafts. 

It was the fantasy football equivalent of the game show “Card Sharks,” with the dealer having flipped over a 3. “Higher!” shouted the astute fantasy managers, and of course it was the right call. Now that there’s a jack on the board, yelling “higher” again would seem to be an unwise choice.

When I put together my initial set of offseason rankings in January, Jackson wasn’t my top-rated quarterback. I was instead drawn to Patrick Mahomes and his more traditional path to QB value. My friend Michael Salfino of The Athletic has theorized that Jackson doesn’t have “a sustainable business model.” The model wasn’t particularly sustainable for Michael Vick, who finished as the QB1 once and as the QB2 twice but had just one other top-10 season.

Then I talked to Rich Hribar of Sharp Football, who made an interesting point during a guest appearance on my podcast, Fitz on Fantasy.

Jackson averaged 27.1 fantasy points a game in 2019, and that was with things going very much according to plan for the Ravens, who went 14-2 in the regular season and outscored their opponents by an average of 15.6 points per game. Then came the playoffs, and things went sideways for Baltimore in a 28-12 loss to Tennessee. Playing from behind for all but 3 minutes and 42 seconds of that game, Jackson threw for 365 yards and ran for 143 yards, exceeding his regular-season scoring average despite throwing for only one TD and running for none.

Hribar noted that if things don’t go as smoothly for the Ravens this year and Jackson has to play more hair-on-fire games like the playoff loss to the Titans, he could have even more of those weeks where he puts up such. ridiculous point totals that fantasy teams with Jackson aren’t losing that week unless an opponent hits Yahtzee on the first roll.

So yes, maybe we could see the dealer flip over a card higher than a jack for Jackson this year.

2. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs

What a blessing that perhaps the best running quarterback ever AND arguably the best throwing quarterback ever are playing in the league right now, each still in the ascendant phase of his career.

And do I even have to bother with mincing, fraidy-cat language like “perhaps” and “arguably”? I’m certain that Lamar Jackson is a more dangerous, more electrifying runner than Michael Vick was, and who else even belongs in the conversation? (Cam Newton? Randall Cunningham?) As for best thrower, if I had to pick one QB in NFL history to save my life by slinging a ball through the open window of a moving car from 30-40 yards away, I’m choosing Dan Marino. But Marino was almost always stationary when he worked his magic. Patrick Mahomes’ ability to make pinpoint throws while on the run allows him to perform parlor tricks that Marino could never pull off. 

Mahomes is only 24, has averaged 303.6 passing yards and 23.0 fantasy points per game, and he’s already recorded a 50-TD season. Jackson and Mahomes are the steak and lobster of the QB position.

3. Deshaun Watson, Texans

There’s a broad consensus that Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes are on their own tier, and that Tier 2 is a four-man group with Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson. On FantasyPros.com, Watson’s ADP and ECR (expert consensus ranking) are both QB6, putting him at the bottom of Tier 2. I think that’s Looney Tunes.

Watson has averaged 21.6 fantasy points per game for his career. Wilson has averaged 19.3, Prescott 18.4 and Murray 17.8. No doubt the faith in Watson has been shaken by the defection of DeAndre Hopkins. But does the loss of Hopkins bridge the point gap between Watson and the other QBs on this tier? I think not.

ESPN’s Mike Clay has noted that Watson has a slightly higher completion percentage and has averaged more yards per target for his career when throwing to WRs other than Hopkins. And it’s not as if Watson is bereft of capable receivers. Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks are both explosive playmakers, and Randall Cobb and Kenny Stills are quite competent. Yes, Fuller is brittle and Cooks has a troubling concussion history, but if those two can stay healthy, this group will be no worse than average. RBs David Johnson and Duke Johnson are both accomplished pass catchers.

But let’s not skew the order of things here. It’s Watson who stirs the drink. He’s never been a product of his pass catchers. Hell, Darren Fells is a geriatric blocking tight end with the speed and movement ability of Frankenstein’s monster, and Watson made him fantasy-relevant last year.

A little respect for Watson, please.

4. Russell Wilson, Seahawks

“Let Russ cook!”

This battle cry from Seahawks fans, fantasy managers and cerebral football fans everywhere reflects bewilderment that a team quarterbacked by a future Hall of Famer has one of the NFL’s run-heaviest offenses year after year.

Wilson’s fantasy finishes over his eight-year career: QB11, QB8, QB3, QB3, QB11, QB1, QB9, QB4. Imagine what those numbers might look like if Wilson played for someone who indeed let him cook. Alas. Pete Carroll is the NFL’s version of Ted Allen, host of the Food Network show “Chopped.” To the extent that Wilson is allowed to cook, he’s asked to make a delicious meal out of dandelion greens, cactus pears and salmon jerky. 

The hope is that Carroll and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer give Wilson full access to the pantry this year. They might have to, because the historically strong Seattle defense is starting to look a bit tattered. A frayed defense would mean more negative game scripts for the Seahawks, which would presumably mean more pass attempts for Wilson. 

Bon appétit.

5. Dak Prescott, Cowboys

Prescott has an ADP of QB3, and the enthusiasm is understandable. He finished QB2 last year, with a career-high 4,902 yards and 30 TD passes, and the Cowboys added stud WR prospect CeeDee Lamb to a WR group that already included Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup.

Dak shattered his previous single-season high in yardage by more than 1,000 yards and beat his previous high in TD passes by seven. The boost was largely driven by passing volume. Prescott averaged 492 pass attempts in his first three seasons and had 596 last year. 

Also, not even the CEO of Waste Management Inc. cashed in on garbage time more than Dak did last year.

Garbage-time value for quarterbacks is one of the great myths of fantasy football. There are still fantasy managers who will eagerly start a quarterback from a team that’s a double-digit underdog based on the promise of a negative, pass-heavy game script. The reality is that these garbage-time bonanzas rarely materialize, and even when they do, they rarely move the needle for QBs in any sort of meaningful way.

Still, it’s worth noting that Prescott REALLY piled up the numbers in lopsided losses to the Packers, Vikings and Bills. In those three games combined, Prescott threw for 738 yards and four TDs after the Cowboys had fallen behind by more than two touchdowns in the second half. (We’re talking about less than 180 minutes of game clock.) So 15.1% of his passing yardage and 13.3% of his TD passes came in 66 minutes and 28 seconds worth of garbage time. 

I’m not dissing Dak. I think he’s one of the league’s better starting QBs, and his supporting cast is grade-A. But his QB2 fantasy finish last year was aided by a spike in passing volume and some unrepeatable garbage-time numbers. I think Prescott is being slightly overvalued.

6. Kyler Murray, Cardinals

I like Murray enough to have drafted him at 1.10 in a superflex dynasty startup this spring, but some rankers have him as high as QB3 for redraft leagues, and that’s a bridge too far for me. 

Yes, Murray’s talents as a runner and thrower are obvious. He finished QB8 as a rookie, and the addition of DeAndre Hopkins obviously helps. There’s a lot to like here. 

If only the Cardinals were as attentive to their offensive line as they have been to their WR corps. Arizona finished 26th in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate metric last year and 22nd in the adjusted line yards run-blocking metric. Rookie tackle Josh Jones was a nice get in the third round of this year’s draft, and the Cardinals signed veteran Kelvin Beachum for depth, but it seems like the franchise hasn’t had a truly good offensive line since the Dan Dierdorf/Conrad Dobler era – which, for perspective, roughly coincided with the disco era.

There was a school of thought that Kliff Kingsbury’s version of the air raid offense would de-emphasize O-line performance through a quicker tempo and quicker releases for Murray. Well, Murray took 48 sacks, tied for the league high, yet the average depth of his throws was 7.6 yards, which ranked 27th among QBs who made at least eight starts. So, yeah, pass protection was a problem.

Again, I like Murray and agree that he belongs on Tier 2 of quarterbacks. But Watson and Wilson are still better players than Murray, and Prescott probably is, too.

7. Josh Allen, Bills

When Green Day frontman Billie Joe Armstrong was young, he asked his guitar teacher how to write a song. 

“All he said,” Armstrong told Rolling Stone magazine, “was, ‘It’s verse, chorus, verse, chorus, bridge, verse, chorus — mix it up any way you want.’ ”

Josh Allen has been squeezing fantasy value from a similarly basic but effective formula: ↑, ↑, ↓, ↓, ←, →, ←, →, B, A. Better known as the “Konami Code,” it’s a video game cheat that the aforementioned Rich Hribar famously repurposed for fantasy football, suggesting that quarterbacks who derive significant value from their running ability are fantasy cheat codes.

Allen has been highly effective as a runner, with 1,141 rushing yards and 17 TD runs in his first two NFL seasons. He’s been… um, significantly less effective as a passer. But just as The Ramones rocketed to stardom on the strength of three chords and rudimentary melodies, Allen’s pell-mell style produced a QB6 finish last season and suddenly has some fantasy managers eagerly buying tickets for another go in the mosh pit.

The prog-rock elitists are having none of it, mocking Allen’s scattershot accuracy and dubious decision-making. The aesthetics of Allen’s quarterbacking leave something to be desired, as do the numbers: He finished out of the top 25 in completion percentage and yards per attempt last year, and he was 24th in passer rating. 

But what if Allen starts to “get it” as a passer? It’s not as if he has a shortage of arm strength. Maybe accuracy can’t be taught, but surely the 24-year-old’s mechanics can be spruced up a bit. Perhaps young quarterbacks are like new rock bands.

“New rock bands are very fragile,” Gene Simmons of Kiss told Rolling Stone a few years ago. “They’re like babies. You need to give them love and caring and give them a chance to come up with their better stuff so that they start with ‘Love Me Do’ end up writing ‘A Day in the Life.’ The same band. They had the time to mature and grow.”

Allen probably isn’t ready to record his first masterpiece yet, but I’d like to believe he has the capacity for growth and the potential to turn into something other than a three-chord QB. The rushing ability sets a solid floor, and if Allen starts to figure it out as a passer, he could turn a profit on what many consider to be an inflated price.

8. Matt Ryan, Falcons

The yardage is bankable – Ryan has thrown for more than 4,000 yards in nine straight seasons, and he’s averaged 302.9 passing yards per game over the last two seasons – but the TD totals have vacillated wildly. Ryan’s yearly TD passes since 2015: 21, 38, 20, 35, 26.

Since the 4,000-yard streak began in 2011, Ryan has averaged 28.3 TD passes, and that seems like a reasonable baseline. If that’s where his TD total lands, he’ll be a solid back-end QB1. Enough said.

9. Carson Wentz, Eagles

Wentz managed to exceed 4,000 passing yards last year and finish QB9 despite not having a single wide receiver reach 500 yards. Late last season, when Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor were hurt, Wentz’s No. 1 receiver was Greg Ward, an undrafted former college quarterback. 

The Eagles supped up the WR position in the offseason and now have no shortage of speed. They took Jalen Reagor of TCU in the first round of the draft, added burners John Hightower and Quez Watkins on day three, and signed fleet-footed ex-49er Marquise Goodwin. DeSean Jackson also returns after making it through only three games last year.

Wentz also has the best TE combo in the league in Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert, and young RB Miles Sanders was marvelous in the passing game last year. 

Now that his arsenal has been upgraded, Wentz just needs to stay healthy. After missing time in 2017 and 2018 with a torn ACL and fractured vertebra, respectively, last year he managed to play all 16 regular-season games for the first time since his rookie year in 2016.

There’s top-five potential here if the North Dakota kid can keep his body intact.

10. Aaron Rodgers, Packers

Spare us the platitudes about needing to wait several years before a draft can be fairly evaluated. Packers GM Brian Gutekunst bungled the 2020 draft so badly that it’s reasonable to wonder whether he could competently manage a Dairy Queen franchise.

The Packers needed help at receiver and were presented with an exceptionally deep, talented rookie WR class, but Gutekunst chose not to draft a single receiver. He dealt away a fourth-round pick to trade up in the first round for QB Jordan Love, then claimed Rodgers would continue to be the Packers’ quarterback for the foreseeable future, even though it would be silly to have Love sit on the bench for multiple years, negating the advantage of having a highly drafted young QB signed to a cheap rookie contract. Gutekunst then tried to gaslight fans and the media by claiming that Love simply “fell to us,” even though Gutekunst had traded up to take him.

(Gutekunst’s second-round selection of one-dimensional RB A.J. Dillon was probably even more inane than the Love pick, but never mind.)

QB10 might seem like an aspirational ranking for Rodgers after the Packers did nothing to upgrade his pass-catching group other than signing heavy-legged WR Devin Funchess. Rodgers certainly isn’t the player he was seven or eight years ago, and some of his stats suggest that he’s become little more than an average starting quarterback.

Passer rating and yards per attempt aren’t exactly bulletproof metrics, but together they offer a pretty good back-of-the-envelope illustration of QB effectiveness. Rodgers ranked 13th in passer rating in 2019 and 12th last year, and he’s ranked 17th in YPA in each of the last two seasons. He doesn’t add as much value with his legs as he used to either.

And please don’t buy the preposterous narrative that Rodgers is going to go nuclear this year because he’s mad about Gutekunst drafting Love and not bringing in any WR help. Does anyone really think that while Rodgers is standing in the pocket trying to read a defense, decide on a target and keep an eye out for malevolent pass rushers, he’s thinking to himself, “Fuck Gutekunst. I’ll show him” … and then concentrates harder on completing the pass than he would otherwise?

I still like Rodgers a little more than Matthew Stafford and oldsters Drew Brees and Tom Brady, but I’ve been drafting around Rodgers rather than buying him at his QB10 ADP.

The post Fitz on Fantasy: 2020 Quarterback Rankings, 1-10 appeared first on The Football Girl.

“Is it OK for me to say I would rather poke my eyes out with a pen than have a mouthful of your tripe à la mode?” Bourdain’s fan inquired.

Bourdain was aghast.                        

“You have disrespected your host, OK?” he replied. “That tripe à la mode could be a beloved family dish. You just basically spat in the milk of their mother. You rejected any possibility of trying something new. You revealed yourself to be an inward-looking buffoon and no one I would want to be friends with.”

Ouch.

Bourdain was harsh, but he was right: One man’s tripe is another man’s treasure.

And so it is in fantasy football. We all crave the Kobe beef of the player pool, but it’s rare and expensive. The beef tongue is cheaper and more readily available in fantasy drafts, but not everyone has a taste for it. 

Some of the offal that can be consumed in the double-digit rounds of best-ball drafts has most fantasy owners recoiling in horror, but some drafters realize that with the right seasoning and preparation, these off-cuts can be quite delicious. Let’s look at a few of the players being waved away as if they were organ meats.

Jared Goff, QB, Rams (Best-ball ADP: QB16, 167.9 overall)

Goffal, anyone? With an ADP that puts him in the high-QB2 range, Goff isn’t considered that unsavory, but he’s generating little enthusiasm despite finishing QB13 in fantasy scoring last year and QB7 in 2018. There were some bumps in 2019. Goff’s YPA dropped from 8.4 in 2018 to 7.4, and he went from 32 TD passes to 22. He averaged 3.3 yards per attempt in a 20-7 loss to the 49ers in Week 6, and he went three straight games without a TD pass in November. But Goff quietly caught fire down the stretch, averaging 328.6 passing yards in five December games. Even if Rams head coach Sean McVay isn’t being praised as the boy wonder anymore, he’s still a skilled play-caller and offensive chorographer. And Goff has a strong collection of pass catchers, with Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp at wide receiver, and Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett at tight end.

Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers (Best-ball ADP: QB17, 168.6 overall)

Late-season camera shots of the injured Roethlisberger standing on the Steelers’ sideline suggested that he’d been doing his rehab work at Primanti Brothers. Bigger Ben is set to return from an elbow injury that put him on injured reserve after just two games. He’s 38 now, so the age cliff looms, but a terrific young WR corps should help prop up Roethlisberger’s fantasy value for another year or two. Rookie Diontae Johnson and second-year man James Washington made significant contributions in 2019 despite substandard QB play from Roethlisberger’s backups, and JuJu Smith-Schuster is still a stud. Roethlisberger’s QB3 in 2018 fantasy scoring was largely volume-driven, but his QB10 finish in 2017 is certainly repeatable and would return a tidy profit on a modest investment.

Darrynton Evans, RB, Colts (Best-ball ADP: RB60, 206.3 overall)

The rookie replaces Dion Lewis as the backup to Derrick Henry. A 5-10, 203-pound sparkplug with 4.4 speed, Evans will get passing-down work and occasionally give Henry a breather. Evans’ value would soar if anything happened to Henry, especially with the rest of the Titans’ RB cupboard so bare. Evans had 255 carries for 1,480 yards and 18 TDs in his final season at Appalachian State along with five TD catches, and his home-run speed could play particularly well in best-ball formats. If the Titans had invested a third-round pick on a running back from, say, Auburn instead of one from Appy State, his overall ADP would probably be 50 spots higher. 

Damien Harris, RB, Patriots (Best-ball ADP: RB67, 225.0 overall)

The Patriots effectively redshirted Harris in his rookie season, sticking with a rotation of Sony Michel, James White and Rex Burkhead. Michel is 25 going on 36. His oft-injured knees are a concern, he’s coming off a lackluster second season, and he’s a nonfactor in the passing game. White is a fine pass catcher but hasn’t logged more than 94 carries in any of his six NFL seasons. Burkhead turns 30 in July and is a potential cap casualty. Harris started ahead of Raiders first-round pick Josh Jacobs and highly regarded 2021 draft prospect Najee Harris at Alabama, and the Patriots invested third-round draft capital in him, which suggests his time is coming. It’s a good time to get in on the ground floor.

Breshad Perriman, WR, free agent (Best-ball ADP: WR57, 171.4 overall)

Perriman had a better December than Santa Claus last year, with 25 catches for 506 yards and four touchdowns in the Buccaneers’ last five games. Injuries to Chris Godwin and Mike Evans funneled some extra targets Perriman’s way, but the late-season outburst wasn’t entirely injury-enabled — Godwin played in three of the last five games, and Evans played in two. Among receivers with 35 or more catches, Perriman ranked first in average depth of target (18.78), fifth in yards per catch (17.92) and 14th in yards per target (9.92). Perriman’s landing spot in free agency is being viewed negatively – his overall ADP was higher when he was still unsigned – but Sam Darnold is a talented young passer who could come on quickly, and it’s not a stretch to think that Perriman is a better, more dangerous pass catcher than Jamison Crowder, Denzel Mims or Chris Herndon.

Steven Sims Jr., WR, Redskins (Best-ball ADP: WR84, 233.5 overall)

Terry McLaurin was a rookie revelation for Washington in 2019, so there’s relatively little attention being paid to Sims, an undrafted free agent from Kansas who came on late in his first NFL season. Sims’ overall rookie stat line was modest (34-310-4), but over his final four games he had 20-230-4 on 36 targets. Sims’ quickness belies his 4.6 timed speed. He’s the favorite to be Washington’s slot receiver, and there’s little target competition on the roster other than McLaurin. New head coach Ron Rivera has talked up Sims this offseason, comparing him to the Panthers’ D.J. Moore.

Jalen Hurd, WR, 49ers (Best-ball ADP: WR95, 239.4 overall)

Hurd is a 6-4, 230-pound brute who was drafted early in the third round in 2019. He had two TD catches in his preseason debut but missed the entire regular season with a stress fracture in his back. Hurd began his college career as a running back at Tennessee, leading the Vols in rushing as a true freshman and then running for 1,285 yards and 12 touchdowns as a sophomore. He decided he wanted to switch to receiver and transferred to Baylor, where he had 69 catches for 946 yards and four touchdowns in his final college season (along with 48 carries and three TD runs.) It’s exciting to imagine what Kyle Shanahan might have planned for a guy whose size and positional versatility makes him such an intriguing weapon. With the 49ers taking Brandon Aiyuk in the first round of this year’s draft, Hurd has become a forgotten man, but it wouldn’t be shocking if Hurd proved to be a more valuable fantasy asset than Aiyuk this year.

Gerald Everett, TE, Rams (Best-ball ADP: TE28, 222.5 overall)

Everett seemed to be on his way to a third-year breakout, catching 23 passes for 278 yards and two touchdowns over a five-game midseason stretch before hyperextending his knee in a blowout loss to the Ravens. With Everett hurt, fellow tight end Tyler Higbee was thrust into a greater role and went berserk, putting up 43-522-2 over the last five games. Higbee’s late-season performance was too eye-popping to have been a fluke. But what about Everett? He was the Rams’ first draftee of the Sean McVay era, taken in the second round in 2017. Everett is an 86th percentile SPARQ-x athlete and has made steady progress in the Rams’ offense. Can McVay find a way to effectively deploy both tight ends? Well, yes, by using more 12 personnel sets, with two TEs on the field – and that’s probably going to be the Rams’ base offense in 2020. There’s room for two talented TEs to produce in this offense.

(ADP information is based on Fanball 10 best-ball drafts that have taken place since May 1.)

The post Best Ball Bargains: Jared Goff and Others Tripe For The Picking appeared first on The Football Girl.